link to climate change – Page 2 – Center for Invasive Species Prevention

The White Mountain forest in New Hampshire: 80 years of change, with more ahead

I have been disappointed that a research symposium focused on the northern hardwood forest workshop gave little attention to non-native pests (see citation at end of this blog). A new study based in the Bartlett Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire is more balanced. Ducey et al. (full citation at the end of this blog) analyzed changes in the forest’s species composition and tree size over the past 80 years.

They found that trees of nearly all species are growing into larger sizes as the forest continues to age since the last widespread clearing at the end of the 19^th Century. The same aging is causing a rapid decline in two shade-intolerant species – paper birch (Betula papyrifera) and aspen (Populus tremuloides and P. grandidentata) – which had grown quickly once the cleared areas were abandoned. The mid-shade -tolerant species yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis) also is declining. Together, the birch and aspen species have declined from a quarter to a third of basal area in 1931 to 10 – 12% in 2015.

Some developments are unexpected. Red maple (Acer rubrum) increased in abundance until the early 1990s, but that growth then levelled off. Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) has declined in abundance except where the forest is managed to retain it.

There is little evidence of tree species migrating upward on slopes in response to changes in the local climate. Major weather events – a hurricane in 1938 and an ice storm in 1998 — caused significant tree mortality across Bartlett Experimental Forest, but not a dramatic change in forest composition.

Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) is replacing the disappearing birch and aspen on low elevation sites. Hemlock has increased its proportion of basal area from 8 – 10% to a quarter or more. Despite aggressive management aimed at reducing the tree’s presence, American beech (Fagus grandifolia) is on track to dominate large areas of the Bartlett Experimental Forest. Given the tree-killing pests already present in the region, large increases in eastern hemlock, American beech, and red spruce (Picea rubens) are worrying.

Eastern hemlock creates important wildlife habitat for deer and more than 100 other vertebrate species in New England. However, hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) has been present in New Hampshire since 2000. It is now within 15-20 km of Bartlett Experimental Forest. There is some hope that the region’s cold temperatures might limit HWA’s spread and impacts, but Ducey et al. expect major change when the adelgid arrives.

Ducey et al. cite a separate study demonstrating that mortality caused by beech bark disease (BBD) can be sufficient to upset carbon storage in old-growth forests. On the Bartlett Forest, nearly 90% of beech trees had become diseased by 1950.

Ducey et al. express concern about the possible impact of beech leaf disease (BLD), as well.

BLD has not yet been detected in the White Mountains or New Hampshire, but is in so New England and coastal Maine. Much remains unknown about the disease, including how it spreads and its long-term impacts.

Ducey et al. do not raise pest concerns about red spruce or balsam fir (Abies balsamea), which co-dominate the Bartlett Forest at higher elevations (above 500 m). This silence is disturbing since red spruce can be killed by the brown spruce longhorned beetle, a European woodborer established in Nova Scotia and threatening to spread south. Balsam firs suffer some mortality from feeding by the balsam woolly adelgid, a Eurasian sap-sucker which has been in New England for more than a century.

White ash (Fraxinus americana) is present as a minor component of the Bartlett Forest. Because it is considered to be a valuable timber species, management has resulted in a modest increase in abundance of ash. Ducey et al. expect dramatic reduction — or even elimination of the species — when the emerald ash borer (EAB) arrives. EAB has been detected within ~ 15 km from Bartlett Experimental Forest.

Ducey et al. conclude that silvicultural management applied at the scope and intensity of that in the Bartlett Experimental Forest has moderated some changes. That is, it is maintaining sugar maple and suppressing the increase of beech. Its effect is secondary, however to overall forest development as the forest ages.

SOURCES

Ducey, M.J, O.L., Yamasaki, M. Belair, E.P., Leak, W.B. 2023. Eight decades of compositional change in a managed northern hardwood landscape. Forest Ecosystems 10 (2023) 100121

Proceedings of the First Biennial Northern Hardwood Conference 2021: Bridging Science and Management for the Future. USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station General Technical Report NRS-P-211, May 2023

Posted by Faith Campbell

We welcome comments that supplement or correct factual information, suggest new approaches, or promote thoughtful consideration. We post comments that disagree with us — but not those we judge to be not civil or inflammatory.

For a detailed discussion of the policies and practices that have allowed these pests to enter and spread – and that do not promote effective restoration strategies – review the Fading Forests report at http://treeimprovement.utk.edu/FadingForests.htm

www.fadingforests.org

USFS Lays Out Incomplete Picture of the Future

tanoak trees in southern Oregon killed by sudden oak death; photo by Oregon Department of Forestry; this pathogen is not mentioned by USFS RPA report

In August the USDA Forest Service published the agency’s 2020 assessment of the future of America’s forests under the auspices of the Resources Planning Act. [See United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Future of America’s Forests and Rangelands, full citation at the end of the blog.] To my amazement, this report is the first in the series (which are published every ten years) to address disturbance agents, specifically invasive species. In 2023! Worse, I think its coverage of the threat does not reflect the true state of affairs – as documented by Forest Service scientists among others.

This is most unfortunate because policy-makers presumably rely on this report when considering which threats to focus on.

Here I discuss some of the USFS RPA report and what other authors say about the same topics.

The RPA Report’s Principle Foci: Extent of the Forest and Carbon Sequestration

The USFS RPA report informs us that America’s forested area will probably decrease 1- 2% over the next 50 years (from 635.3 million acres to between 619 and 627 million acres), due largely to conversion to other uses. This decline in extent, plus trees’ aging and increases in disturbance will result in a slow-down in carbon sequestration by forests. In fact, if demand for wood products is high, or land conversion to other uses proceeds apace, U.S. forest ecosystems are projected to become a net source of atmospheric CO₂by 2070.

Eastern forests sequester the majority of U.S. forest carbon stocks. These forests are expected to continue aging – thereby increasing their carbon storage. Yet we know that these forests have suffered the greatest impact from non-native pests.

I don’t understand why the USFS RPA report does not explicitly address the implications of non-native pests. In 2019, Songlin Fei and three USFS research scientists did address this topic. Fei et al. estimated that tree mortality due to the 15 most damaging introduced pest species have resulted in releases of an additional 5.53 terragrams of carbon per year. Fei and colleagues conceded this is probably an underestimate. They say that annual levels of biomass loss are virtually certain to increase because current pests are still spreading to new host ranges (as demonstrated by detection of the emerald ash borer in Oregon). Also, infestations in already-invaded ranges will intensify, and additional pests will be introduced (for example, beech leaf disease).

I see this importance of eastern forests in sequestering carbon as one more reason to expand efforts to protect them from new pest introductions, and the spread of those already in the country, etc.

A second issue is the role of non-native tree species in supporting the structure and ecological functions of forests. Ariel Lugo and colleagues report that 18.8 million acres (7.6 million ha, or 2.8% of the forest area in the continental U.S.) is occupied by non-native tree species. (I know of no overall estimate for all invasive plants.) They found that non-native tree species constitute 12–23% (!) of the basal area of those forest stands in which they occur.

Norway maple (*Acer platanoides*); one of the most widespread invasive species in the East. Photo by Hermann Falkner via Flickr

Lugo and colleagues confine their analysis of ecosystem impacts to carbon sequestration. They found that the contribution of non-native trees to carbon storage is not significant at the national level. In the forests of the continental states (lower 48 states), these trees provide 10% of the total carbon storage in the forest plots where they occur. (While Lugo and colleagues state that the proportion of live tree biomass made up of non-native tree species varies greatly among ecological subregions, they do not provide examples of areas on the continent where their biomass – and contribution to carbon storage — is greater than this average.) In contrast, on Hawai`i, non-native tree species provide an estimated 29% of live tree carbon storage. On Puerto Rico, they provide an even higher proportion: 36%.

Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) – widespread invasive in Hawai`i and Florida; early stage invasive in Puerto Rico. Photo by Javier Alexandro via Flickr

In the future, non-native trees will play an even bigger role. Since tree invasions on the continent are expanding at ~500,000 acres (202,343 ha) per year, it is not surprising that non-native species’ saplings provide 19% of the total carbon storage for that size of trees in the lower 48 states (Lugo et al.).

Forming a More Complete Picture: Biodiversity, Disturbance, and Combining Data.

The USFS RPA report has a chapter on biodiversity. However, the chapter does not discuss historic or future diversity of tree species within biomes, nor the genetic diversity within tree species.

Treatment of Invasive Species

The USFS 2020 RPA report is the first to include a chapter on disturbance, including invasive species. I applaud its inclusion while wondering why they have included it only now? Why is the coverage so minimal? I think these lapses undercut the report’s purpose. The RPA is supposed to inform decision-makers and stakeholders about the status, trends, and projected future of renewable natural resources and related economic sectors for which USFS has management responsibilities. These include: forests, forest products, rangelands, water, biological diversity, and outdoor recreation. The report also has not met its claim to “capitalize on” areas where the USFS has research capacity. One excuse might be that several important publications have appeared after the cut-off date for the assessment (2020). Still, the report’s authors cite some of the evaluations that were in preparation as of 2020, e.g., Poland et al.

I suggest also that it would be helpful to integrate data from other agencies, especially the invasive species database compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey, into the RPA. For example, the USGS lists just over 4,000 non-native plant species in the continental U.S. (defined as the lower 48 plus Alaska). On Hawai`i, the USGS lists 530 non-native plant species as widespread. Caveat: many of the species included in these lists probably coexist with the native plants and make up minor components of the plant community.

Specifically: Invading Plants

The USFS RPA report gives much more attention to invasive plants than non-native insects and pathogens. The report relies on the findings of Oswalt et al., who based their data on forested plots sampled by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. (The RPA also reports on invasive plants detected on rangelands, primarily grasslands.) Oswalt et al. found that 39% of FIA plots nationwide contained at least one plant species that the FIA protocol considers to be invasive and monitors. The highest intensity of plant invasions is in Hawai`i – 70% of the plots are invaded. The second-greatest intensity is in the eastern forests: 46%. However, the map showing which plots were inventoried for invasive plants makes clear how incomplete these data are – a situation I had not realized previously.

I appreciate that the USFS RPA report mentions that propagule pressure is an important factor in plant invasions. This aspect has often been left out in past analyses. I also appreciate the statement that international trade in plants for ornamental horticulture will probably lead to additional introductions in the future. Third, I concur with the report’s conclusions that once forest land is invaded, it is unlikely to become un-invaded. Invasive plant management in forests often results in one non-native species being replaced by another. In sum, the report envisions a future in which plant invasion rates are likely to increase on forest land.

If you wish to learn more about invasive plant presence and impacts, see the discussion of invasive plants in Poland et al., my blogs based on the work by Doug Tallamy, and several other of my blogs compiled under the category “invasive plants” on this website.

I believe all sources expect that the area invaded by non-native plant species, and the intensity of existing invasions, will increase in the future.

The USFS RPA links these invasions to expansion of the “wildland-urban interface” (“WUI”). These areas increased rapidly before 2010. At that time, they occupied 14% of forest land. The report published in 2023 did not assess their future expansion over the period 2020 to 2070. However, it did project increased fragmentation in many regions, especially in the RPA Western and Southeastern regions. Since “fragmentation” is very similar to wildland-urban interfaces, the report seems implicitly to project more widespread plant invasions in the future.

plant invasions facilitated by fragmentation; northern Virginia; photo by F.T. Campbell

Specifically: Insects and Pathogens

The USFS RPA report on insects and pathogens is brief and contains puzzling errors and gaps. It says that the tree canopy area affected by both native and non-native mortality-causing agents has been consistently large over the three most recent five-year FIA assessment periods. It notes that individual insects or diseases have extirpated entire tree species or genera and fundamentally altered forests across broad regions. Examples cited are chestnut blight and emerald ash borer.

The USFS RPA report warns that pest-related mortality might be underreported in the South, masked by more intense management cycles and higher rates of tree growth and decay. On the other hand, the report asserts that pest-related mortality is probably overrepresented in the Northern Region in the 2002 – 2006 period because surveyors drew polygons to encompass large areas affected by EAB and balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae) infestations. The latter puzzles me; I think it is probably an error, and should have referred to hemlock woolly adegid, A. tsugae. Documented mortality has generally been much more widespread from insects than diseases, e.g., bark beetles, including several native ones, across all regions and over time, especially in the West – where the most significant morality agents are several native beetles. The USFS RPA report mentions that the Northern Region has been particularly affected by non-native pests, including EAB, HWA, BWA, beech bark disease, and oak wilt. It mentions that Hawai`i has also suffered substantial impacts from rapid ʻōhiʻa death.

Defoliating insects have affected relatively consistent area over time. This area usually equaled or exceeded the area affected by the mortality agents. Principal non-native defoliators in the Northern Region have been the spongy moth (Lymantria dispar); larch casebearer (Coleophora laricella); and winter moth (Operophtera brumata). In the South they list the spongy moth.

More disturbing to me is the USFS RPA report’s conclusion that the future impact of forest insects is highly uncertain. The authorsblame the complexity of interactions among changing climate, those changes’ effects on insect and tree species’ distributions, and overall forest health. Also, they name uncertainty about which new non-native species will be introduced to the United States. I appreciate the report’s avoidance of blanket statements regarding the effects of climate change. However, other studies – e.g., Poland et al. – have incorporated these complexities while still offering conclusions about a number of currently established non-native pests. Finally, I am particularly dismayed that the USFS RPA does not provide analysis of any forest pathogens beyond the single mention of a few.

I am confused as to why the USFS RPA report makes no mention of Project CAPTURE (Conservation Assessment and Prioritization of Forest Trees Under Risk of Extirpation). This is a multi-partner effort to prioritize U.S. tree species for conservation actions based on invasive pests’ threats and the trees’ ability to adapt to them. Several USFS units participated, including the Southern Research Station, the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, and the Forest Health Protection program. The findings were published in 2019. See here. Lead scientist Kevin Potter was one of the authors of the RPA’s chapter on disturbance.

redbay (*Persea borbonia*) trees in Georgia killed by laurel wilt; photo by Scott Cameron. Redbay is ranked by Project CAPTURE as 5th most severely at risk due to a non-native pest

“Project CAPTURE” provided useful summaries of non-native pests’ impacts, including the facts that

54% of the tree species on the continent are infested by one or more non-native insect or pathogen;
nearly 70% of the host/agent combinations involve angiosperm (broadleaf) species, 30% gymnosperms (e.g., conifers). When considering only non-native pests, pests attacking angiosperms had greater average severity.
Disease impacts are more severe, on average, than insect pests. Wood-borers are more damaging than other types of insect pests.
Non-native agents have, on average, considerably more severe impacts than native pests.

Project CAPTURE also ranked priority tree species based on the threat from non-native pests (Potter et al., 2019). Tree families at the highest risk to non-native pests are: a) Fagaceae (oaks, tanoaks, chestnuts, beech), b) Sapindaceae (soapberry family; includes maples, Aesculus (buckeye, horsechestnut); c) in some cases, Pinaceae (pines); d) Salicaceae (willows, poplars, aspens); e) Ulmaceae (elms) and f) Oleaceae (includes Fraxinus). I believe this information should have been included in the Resources Planning Act report in order to insure that decision-makers consider these threats in guiding USFS programs.

I also wish the USFS RPA had at least prominently referred readers to Poland et al. Among that study’s key points are:

Invasive (non-native) insects and diseases can reduce productivity of desired species, interactions at other trophic levels, and watershed hydrology. They also impose enormously high management costs.
Some non-native pests potentially threaten the survival of entire tree genera, not just individual species, e.g., emerald ash borer and Dutch elm disease. I add white pine blister rust and laurel wilt.
Emerald ash borer and hemlock woolly adelgid are listed as among the most significant threats to forests in the Eastern US.
White pine blister rust and hemlock woolly adelgid are described as so profoundly affecting ecosystem structure and function as to cause an irreversible change of ecological state.
Restoration of severely impacted forests requires first, controlling the non-native pest, then identifying and enriching – through selection and breeding – levels of genetic resistance in native populations of the impacted host tree. Programs of varying length and success target five-needle pines killed by Cronartium ribicola; Port-Orford cedar killed by the oomycete Phytophthora lateralis; chestnut blight; Dutch elm disease; butternut canker (causal agent Ophiognomonia clavigignenti juglandacearum), emerald ash borer; and hemlock woolly adelgid.
Climate change will almost certainly lead to changes in the distribution of invasive species, as their populations respond to increased variability and longer-term changes in temperature, moisture, and biotic interactions. Predicting how particular species will respond is difficult but essential to developing effective prevention, control, and restoration strategies.

Poland et al. summarizes major bioinvaders in several regions. Each region except Hawai`i (!!) includes tree-killing insects or pathogens.

It is easier to understand the RPA report’s not mentioning priority-setting efforts by two other entities, the Morton Arboretum and International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). These studies were published in 2021 and their lead entities were not the Forest Service – although the USFS helped to fund the U.S. portion of the studies.

The Morton Arboretum led in the analysis of U.S. tree species. It published studies evaluating the status of tree species belonging to nine genera, considering all threats. The Morton study ranked as of conservation concern one third of native pine species; 31% of native oak species; significant proportion of species in the Lauraceae. The report on American beech — the only North American species in the genus Fagus – made no mention of beech leaf disease – despite it being a major concern in Ohio – only two states away from the location of the Morton Arboretum near Chicago.

valley oak (*Quercus lobata*) in Alameda Co, California; photo by Belinda Lo via Flickr

Most of the species listed by the Morton Arboretum are of conservation concern because of their small populations and restricted ranges. The report’s coverage of native pests is inconsistent, spotty, and sometimes focuses on odd examples.

Tree Species’ Regeneration

Too late for consideration by the authors of the USFS RPA report come new studies by Potter and Riitters that evaluate species at risk due to poor regeneration. This effort evaluated 280 forest tree species native to the continental United States – two-thirds of the species evaluated in the Kevin Potter’s earlier analysis of pest impacts.

The results of Potter and Riitters 2023 only partially matched those of the IUCN/Morton studies. The Morton study did not mention three genera with the highest proportions of poorly reproducing species according to Potter and Riitters: Platanus, Nyssa, and Juniperus. Potter, Morton, and the IUCN largely agree on the proportion of Pinus species at risk. Potter et al. 2023 found about 11% of oak species to be reproducing poorly, while Morton designated a third of 91 oak species to be of conservation concern.

I believe Potter and Riitters and the Morton study agree that the Southeast and California are geographic hot spots of tree species at risk.

Potter and Riiters found that several species with wide distributions might be at risk because they are reproducing at inadequate rates. Three of these exhibit poor reproduction across their full range: Populus deltoids (eastern cottonwood), Platanus occidentalis (American sycamore), and ponderosa pine(Pinus ponderosa). Four more species are reported to exhibit poor reproduction rates in all seed zones in which they grow (the difference from the former group is not explained). These are two Juniperus, Pinus pungens, and Quercus lobata. As I point out in my earlier blog, valley oak is also under attack by the Mediterranean oak borer.

SOURCES

Fei, S., R.S. Morin, C.M. Oswalt, and A.M. 2019. Biomass losses resulting from insect and disease invasions in United States forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol. 116, No. 35. August 27, 2019.

Lugo, A.E., J.E. Smith, K.M. Potter, H. Marcano Vega, and C.M. Kurtz. 2022. The Contribution of Nonnative Tree Species to the Structure and Composition of Forests in the Conterminous United States in Comparison with Tropical Islands in the Pacific and Caribbean. USDA USFS General Technical Report IITF-54

Poland, T.M., T. Patel-Weynand, D.M. Finch, C.F. Miniat, D.C. Hayes, V.M. Lopez, eds. 2021. Invasive Species in Forests and Rangelands of the United States: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the United States Forest Sector. Springer Verlag. Available gratis at https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-45367-1

Potter, K.M., M.E. Escanferla, R.M. Jetton, G. Man, and B.S. Crane. 2019. Prioritizing the conservation needs of United States tree species: Evaluating vulnerability to forest insect and disease threats. Global Ecology and Conservation.

Potter, K.M. and Riitters, K. 2023. A National Multi-Scale Assessment of Regeneration Deficit as an Indicator of Potential Risk of Forest Genetic Variation Loss. Forests 2022, 13, 19. https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010019

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service. 2023. Future of America’s Forests and Rangelands: The Forest Service 2020 Resource Planning Act Assessment. GTR-WO-102 July 2023

Posted by Faith Campbell

www.fadingforests.org

Invasive Tree Species in the U.S. Caribbean: New Attention!

African Tulip Tree (*Spathodea campanulata*) on Puerto Rico; photo by Joe Schlabotnik via Flickr

While it is widely accepted that tropical island ecosystems are especially vulnerable to invasions, there has been little attention to terrestrial bioinvaders in the Caribbean; there has been more attention to marine bioinvaders such as lionfish. I am glad that is starting to change. Here I review a new study by Potter et al. (full citation at end of this blog), supplemented by information from other recent studies, especially Poland et al.

Potter et al. used USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) survey data to examine regeneration rates by non-native tree species introduced to the continental United States, Hawai`i, and Puerto Rico. I rejoice that they have included these tropical islands, often left out of studies. They are part of the United States and are centers of plant endemism!

Potter et al. sought to learn which individual non-indigenous tree species are regenerating sufficiently to raise concern that they will cause significant ecological and economic damage in the future. That is, those they consider highly invasive. They defined such species as those for which at least 75% of stems of that species detected by FIA surveys are in their small tree categories – saplings or seedlings. They concluded that these species are successfully reproducing after reaching the canopy so they might be more likely to alter forest ecosystem functions and services. They labelled species exhibiting 60 – 75% of stems in the “small” categories as moderately invasive.

The authors recognize that many factors might affect tree species’ regeneration success, especially at the stand level. They assert that successful reproduction reflects a suite of factors such as propagule pressure, time since invasion, and ability of a species to adapt to different environments.

As I reported in an earlier blog, link 17% of the total flora of the islands of the Caribbean archipelago – including but not limited to Puerto Rico – are not native (Potter et al.). In Puerto Rico, two-thirds of forests comprise novel tree assemblages. The FIA records the presence of 57 non-native tree species on Puerto Rico. Potter et al. identified 17 non-native tree species as highly invasive, 16 as potentially highly invasive, and two as moderately invasive. That is, 33 of 57 nonnative tree species, or 58% of those species tallied by FIA surveyors, are actual or potential high-impact bioinvaders. While on the continent only seven non-native tree species occurred on at least 2% of FIA plots across the ecoregions in which they were inventoried, on Puerto Rico 21 species occurred on at least 2% of the FIA plots (38%). They could not assess the invasiveness of the eight species that occurred only as small stems on a couple of survey plots. These species might be in the early stages of widespread invasion, or they might never be able to reproduce & spread.

The high invasion density probably reflects Puerto Rico’s small size (5,325 mi² / 1,379,000 ha); 500 years of exposure to colonial settlement and global trade; and wide-scale abandonment of agricultural land since the middle of the 20^th Century

Naming the invaders

The most widespread and common of the highly invasive non-native tree species are river tamarind (Leucaena leucocephala), on 12.6% of 294 forested plots; algarroba (Prosopis pallida) on 10.9%; and African tuliptree (Spathodea campanulata)on 6.1%. Potter et al. attribute the prevalence of some species largely to land-use history, i.e., reforestation of formerly agricultural lands. In addition, some of the moderately to highly invasive species currently provide timber and non-timber forest products, including S. campanulata, L. leucocephala, Syzgium jambos (rose apple) and Mangifera indica (mango).

Potter et al. contrast the threat posed by Spathodea campanulata with that posed by Syzgium jambo. The latteris shade tolerant and can form dense, monotypic stands under closed canopies. Because it can reproduce under its own canopy, it might be able to remain indefinitely in forests unless it is managed. In contrast S. campanulata commonly colonizes abandoned pastures. Since it is shade intolerant, it might decline in the future as other species overtop it. Meanwhile, they suggest, S. campanulata might provide habitat appropriate for the colonization of native tree species.

Second-growth forest in Caribbean National Forest “El Yunque”

Poland et al. say the threat from Syzgium jambos might be reduced by the accidentally introduced rust fungus Puccinia psidii (= Austropuccinia psidii), which has been killing rose apple in Puerto Rico. In Hawai`i, the same fungus has devastated rose apple in wetter areas.

Potter et al. note that stands dominated by L. leucocephala and Prosopis pallida in the island’s dry forests are sometimes arrested by chronic disturbance – presumably fire. However, they do not report whether other species – native or introduced – tend to replace these two after disturbance. The authors also say that areas with highly eroded soils might persist in a degraded state without trees. The prospect of longlasting bare soil or trashy scrub is certainly is alarming.

Potter et al. warn that the FIA’s sampling protocol is not designed to detect species that are early in the invasion process. However, they do advise targetting eradication or control efforts on the eight species that occurred only as small stems on a couple of survey plots. While their invasiveness cannot yet be determined, these species might be more easily managed because presumably few trees have yet reached reproductive age. They single out Schinus terebinthifolius (Brazilian pepper), since it is already recognized as moderately invasive in Hawai`i. I add that this species is seriously invasive in nearby peninsular Florida and here! APHIS recently approved release of a biocontrol insect in Florida targetting Brazilian pepper. It might easily reach nearby Puerto Rico or other islands in the Caribbean. I am not aware of native plant species in the Caribbean region that might be damaged by the biocontrol agent. However, two native Hawaiian shrubs might be harmed if/when this thrips reaches the Hawaiian Islands. Contact me for specifics, or read the accompanying blog about Potter et al. findings in Hawai`i.

Poland et al. looked at the full taxonomic range of possible bioinvaders in forest and grassland ecosystems. The Caribbean islands receive very brief coverage in the chapter on the Southeast (see Regional Summary Appendices). This chapter contains a statement that I consider unfortunate: “Introduction of species has enriched the flora and fauna of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.” The chapter’s authors assert that many of the naturalized species are restoring forest conditions on formerly agricultural lands. They say that these islands’ experience demonstrates that introduced and native species can cohabitate and complement one another. I ask – but in what kind of forest? These forests, are novel communities that bear little relationship to pre-colonial biodiversity of the islands. Was not this chapter the right place to note that loss? Forests are more than CO₂sinks.

I also regret that the chapter does not mention that the Continental United States can be the source of potentially invasive species (see several examples below).

Mealybug-infested cactus at Cabo Rojo National Wildlife Refuge, Puerto Rico. Photo by Yorelyz Rodríguez-Reyes

The chapter does concede that some introduced species are causing ecological damage now. See Table A8.1. Some of these troublesome introduced species are insects:

the South American Harrisia cactus mealybug (Hypogeococcus pungens) is killing columnar cacti in the islands’ dry forests. The chapter discusses impacts on several cactus species and control efforts, especially the search for biocontrol agents.
the agave snout weevil (Scyphophorus acupunctatus), native to the U.S. Southwest and Mexico , is threatening the endemic and endangered century plant (Agave eggersiana) in St. Croix & Puerto Rico.
Tabebuia thrips (Holopothrips tabebuia) is of unknown origin. It is widespread around mainland Puerto Rico. Its impacts so far are primarily esthetic, but it does apparently feed on both native and introduced tree species in the Tabebuia and Crescentia genera.

The Caribbean discussion also devotes welcome attention to belowground invaders, i.e., earthworms. At least one species has been found in relatively undisturbed cloud forests, so it is apparently widespread. Little is known about its impact; more generally, introduced earthworms can increase soil carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions as through speeded-up litter decomposition and soil respiration.

A factsheet issued by the British forestry research arm DEFRA reports that the pine tortoise scale Toumeyella parvicornis has caused the death of 95% of the native Caicos pine (Pinus caribaea var. bahamensis) forests in the Turks and Caicos Islands (a UK Overseas Territory). The scale is native to North America. It has recently been introduced to Italy as well as to Puerto Rico, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SOURCES

Lugo, A.E., J.E. Smith, K.M. Potter, H. Marcano Vega, C.M. Kurtz. 2022. The Contribution of Non-native Tree Species to the Structure & Composition of Forests in the Conterminous United States in Comparison with Tropical Islands in the Pacific & Caribbean. USFS International Institute of Tropical Forestry General Technical Report IITF-54.

Poland, T.M., Patel-Weynand, T., Finch, D., Miniat, C. F., and Lopez, V. (Eds) (2019), Invasive Species in Forests and Grasslands of the United States: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the United States Forest Sector. Especially the Appendix on the Southeast and Caribbean. Springer Verlag. Available gratis at https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-45367-1

Potter K.M., Riitters, K.H. & Guo. Q. 2022. Non-nativetree regeneration indicates regional & national risks from current invasions. Frontiers in Forests & Global Change Front. For. Glob. Change 5:966407. doi: 10.3389/ffgc.2022.966407

Posted by Faith Campbell

www.fadingforests.org

Sobering News: Invasive Grasses, Trees, and Killer Pests in Hawai`i

At CISP, our hearts go out to all those affected by the terrible August fires on Maui. May the departed rest in peace. May the living find comfort and all that is needed for recovery.

Fire and Invasive Grasses

A fire in non-native grasses on Maui in 2009; photo by Forrest and Kim Starr

Major U.S. and international media continue to detail the fires’ devastation, especially in Lahaina. As time has passed, more news has highlighted the role that the widespread presence of introduced, fire-prone grasses played in the rapid growth and spread of Maui’s fires.

For example, The Washington Post devoted seven paragraphs in one story to the issue of grasses. The story quotes several experts: Alison Nugent, an associate atmospheric scientist at the University of Hawaii’s Water Resources Research Center; Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections; and Clay Trauernicht, a fire researcher at the University of Hawaii.

These and others have been widely quoted in the many recent articles. I am glad that they – and the media – are making clear that climate change is not the sole factor causing damaging wildfires. It is clear that Maui’s recent weather patterns – including the high-velocity winds and drought – have been within the range of normal climate patterns. Fluctuations in the Pacific’s weather have also been normal, especially under the influence of the current El Niño.

The dangers caused by Hawai’i’s fire-prone grasses are also clear – and have been for years. Experts have identified policy weaknesses at the county and state level. Also, they have specified changes to land management that could better prevent or mitigate wildfires. There has been far too little action.

On the other hand, there are hopeful signs.

endangered ‘akikiki photo by Carter Atkinson, USGS

The Hawai’i Wildfire Management Organization, a nonprofit, is educating and engaging communities state-wide. Elizabeth Pickett, a Co-Executive Director, presented an overview of wildfire at the Hawai’i Invasive Species Awareness Month in February 2023. The Big Island Invasive Species Committee has successfully eradicated two species of pampas grass on Hawai’i Island – after 13 years’ work. A native species has been planted where pampas formerly grew.

Another Post article reported on efforts by staff and fire departments to protect the Maui Bird Conservation Center, which houses critically endangered Hawaiian birds found nowhere else on Earth, including some currently extinct in the wild. As I have blogged previously, the palila, kiwikiu, ‘akikiki, ‘alalā [Hawaiian crow; extinct in the wild] and other birds are dying from avian malaria, carried by nonnative mosquitoes. The Center on Maui and another on the Big Island are run by the San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance. Conservationists have completed field trials of a proposed mosquito suppression process for Maui and are seeking public comments for a similar program on Kaua’i. These programs represent groundbreaking and long-awaited progress on countering a principal threat to the survival of Hawai`i’s unique avifauna. Loss of the Center and its birds would have devastated post-suppression efforts to rebuild and restore bird populations in the wild.

The Post carried a second story about the effort to protect Hawai`i’s endangered birds – a full page of print, even longer – with many photos, on the web. The article mentions the “Birds, Not Mosquitoes” program and varying views about it. I rejoice that the dire situation for the Islands’ biodiversity is getting attention in the Nation’s capital. Again, see my earlier blog.

Plant Invasions in Hawaiian Forests

A team of scientists from the USDA Forest Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service, plus the Hawaii Division of Forestry and Wildlife, has carried out a new assessment of the extent of invasive plant species in forests on the Hawaiian Islands (Potter et al. 2023; full citation at end of blog).

The results of their analysis are – in their words – “sobering”. They portend “a more dire future for Hawai`i`s native forests.”

First, regarding the recent fires, Potter et al. found significantly higher cover by invasive grasses on Forest and Inventory Analysis (FIA) plots on Hawai‘i and Maui than on O‘ahu, Kaua‘i, and Lana‘i. Grass invasions were particularly high on the eastern coast of Maui – near Lahaina. Even so, the authors say their study’s methods resulted in a gross underestimate of areas invaded by fire-prone grasses. That is, most of Hawai’i’s xerophytic dry forests were converted to grasslands before the FIA program began. Therefore these grasslands are not included in FIA surveys.

*Psidium cattleyanum*; photo by Forrest and Kim Starr

The extent of current invasions in wetter forests is already significant – but trends point to an even more worrying future.

Naturalized non-native plant taxa constitute half of the Hawaiian flora.
56% of Hawaii’s 553,000 ha of forest land contained non-native tree species; about 39% of these forest lands are dominated by non-native tree species. Invasive plant species of particular concern were found in the understory of 27% of surveyed forest plots.
Across all islands, six of the ten most abundant species are non-native: Psidium cattleyanum, Schinus terebinthifolius, Leucaena leucocepahala, Ardisia elliptica, Psidium guajava, and Acacia confusa.
While less than one-third (29%) of large trees across the Islands are non-native, this proportion increases to about two-thirds of saplings (63%) and seedlings (66%). Potter et al. focus on the likelihood that plant succession will result in transformation of these forests’ canopies from native tree species to non-native species.
75% of forests in lower-elevation areas of all islands are already dominated by non-native tree species. “Only” 31% of higher-elevation forests are so dominated. These montane forests have been viewed as refugia for native species, but all are invaded to some extent – and likely to become more degraded.
Potter et al. say the high elevation forests might be more resistant to domination by non-natives. Such a result would be counter to well-documented experience, though. Even the authors report that the montane rainforests and mesophytic forests of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i are heavily invaded by non-native tree species. Such species constitute 86% or more of large trees, saplings, and seedlings in mesophytic forests; 45% of large trees and 66% of seedlings in their montane rainforests.
The most abundant tree species in Hawai`i is the invasive species Psidium cattleyanum (strawberry guava). It was recorded on 88, or37%, of 238 FIA plots. There are nearly twice as many P. cattleyanum saplings as Hawai`i’s most widespread native species, ‘ohi’a lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha).
Widescale replacement of native trees by non-native species is likely. Several factors favor these changes: 1) tree disease – rapid ‘ohi’a death has had drastic impacts on ‘ohi’a populations on several islands; 2) invasions by forbs and grasses; 3) soil damage and other disturbances caused by invasive ungulates; and 4) climate change. If succession conforms to these trends, non-native tree species could eventually constitute 75% or more of the forest tree stems and basal area on all islands and across forest types and elevations.

Loss of Hawai’i’s native tree species would be disastrous for biodiversity at the global level. More than 95% of native Hawaiian tree species are endemic, occurring nowhere else in the world.

The authors analyzed plant presence data from 238 FIA plots. Plots spanned the state’s various climates, soils, elevations, gradients, ownership, and management. However, access issues precluded inclusion of forests from several islands: Moloka‘i, Kaho’olawe, and Ni‘ihau. I know that Moloka‘i, at least, has a protected forest reserve (a Nature Conservancy property) at the island’s highest elevations.

Protecting Native Trees

Federal, state, and private landowners have carried out numerous actions to protect native forests. These efforts might be having some success. For example, forests on public lands, in conservation reserves, or in areas fenced to exclude ungulates were less impacted by non-native plants than unfenced plots, on average. However, the authors could not determine how much of this difference was the result of management or because protections were established in forests with the lowest presence of IAS species. Fencing did not prevent invasions by forbs and grasses – possibly because they are so widespread that seed sources are everywhere.

Hawaii’s two National parks (Hawai`i Volcanoes and Haleakala) have made major efforts to control invasive plants. Hawai`i Volcanoes, on the Big Island, began its efforts in the 1980s; Haleakala (on Maui) more recently. This might be one explanation for the fact that a smaller proportion of the forests on these two islands have been invaded. These efforts have not fully protected the parks, however. Low elevation native rainforests now have a high presence of non-native shrubs. Such forests on Hawai`i Island also have significant invasions by non-native woody vines, forbs and grasses.

More discouraging, intensive efforts have not returned lowland wet forest stands to a native-dominated state. Native tree species are not regenerating—even where there is plentiful seed from native canopy trees and managers have repeatedly removed competing non-native understory plants.

Potter et al. conclude that other approaches will be needed. They suggest deliberate planting of native and non-invasive non-native species or creation of small artificial gaps that might facilitate recovery of native tree species. In montane forests on Hawai`i and Maui, where native tree seedlings account for more than 70% of all tree seedlings, they propose enhancing early detection/rapid response efforts targetting invasive forbs. This would include both National parks.Certainly Haleakala National Park has this priority in mind. It launched a serious effort to try to eradicate Miconia calvescens when this tree first was detected.

Lloyd Loope, much-mourned scientist with US Geological Survey, attacking *Miconia* on Maui

Potter et al. note the challenge of managing remnant xerophytic dry forests, where natural regeneration of native plants has been strongly limited by invasive grasses; loss of native pollinators and seed dispersers; and the increasing frequency and intensity of droughts. They note that expanded management efforts must be implemented for decades, or longer, to be successful.

Native Trees at Risk to Nonnative Insects

Beyond the scope of the Potter et al. study is the fact that at least two dry forest endemic trees have faced their own threats from non-native insects.

The Erythrina gall wasp, Quadrastichus erythrinae, appeared in Hawai`i in 2005; it originates in east Africa. It attacks the endemic tree, wiliwili, Erythrina sandwicensis. I believe a biocontrol agent, Eurytoma erythrinae, first released in 2008, has effectively protected the wiliwili tree, lessening this threat.

The Myoporum thrips, Klambothrips myopori, from Tasmania, was detected on the Big Island in 2009. It threatens a second native tree. Naio, (Myoporum sandwicense), grows in dry forests, lowlands, upland shrublands, and mesic and wet forest habitats from sea level to 3000 m. The loss of this species would be both a signifcant loss of native biodiversity and a structural loss to native forest habitats. The thrips continues to spread; a decade after the first detection, it was found on the leeward (dry) side of Hawai`i Island with rising levels of infestation and tree dieback.

*Rhus sandwicensis* on Maui; photo by Forrest and Kim Starr

Two native shrubs, Hawaiian sumac Rhus sandwicensis and Dodonea viscosa, might be at risk from a biocontrol agent in the future. APHIS has approved a biocontrol for the highly invasive Brazilian pepper, Schinus terebinthifolia. Brazilian pepper is the second-most abundant non-native tree species in the State. It was found on 28 of 238 (12%) FIA plots. However, the APHIS-approved biocontrol agent is a thrips—Pseudophilothrips ichini. It is known to attack both of these two native Hawaiian shrubs. The APHIS approval allowed release of the thrips only on the mainland US. However, many insects have been introduced unintentionally from the mainland to Hawai`i. Furthermore, Hawaiian authorities were reported to be considering deliberate introduction of P. ichini to control peppertree on the Islands.

In Conclusion

In conclusion, Potter et al. found that most Hawaiian forests are now hybrid communities of native and non-native species; indeed, a large fraction are novel forests dominated by non-native trees. Business-as-usual management will probably mean that the hybrid forests – and probably those in which the canopy is currently dominated by native species—will follow successional trajectories to novel, non-native- dominated woodlands. This likelihood results in a more dire future for native plants in Hawaiian forests than has been previously described.

Potter at al. hope that their findings can guide research and conservation on other islands, especially those in the Pacific. However, Pacific islands already have the most naturalized species globally for their size—despite what was originally considered their protective geographic isolation.

SOURCE

Potter, K.M., C. Giardina, R.F. Hughes, S. Cordell, O. Kuegler, A. Koch, E. Yuen. 2023. How invaded are Hawaiian forests? Non-native understory tree dominance signals potential canopy replacement. Landsc Ecol https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01662-6

Posted by Faith Campbell

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Tree Regeneration Rates: A Tool for Prioritizing Tree Conservation Efforts

Ponderosa pine, Coconico National Forest; photograph by Brady Smith, USFS

Have you noticed, as I have, a spurt of interest in conservation of trees? I can rejoice that more people now focus on this!!!!

I have blogged previously about international and national efforts to determine not only native species deserving conservation priority – by the Morton Arboretum and IUCN but also species most threatened by non-native pests. I have also reported on growing attention to breeding tree resistance to non-native pests.

Some scientists are now focusing on species’ regeneration as a way to understand the probable future of both native and introduced species. I hope that scientists will integrate these new data with existing information on the impacts of invasive non-tree plants and tree-killing introduced pests. We need such a comprehensive picture. That will be a challenge!

Also, I hope attempts to set conservation priorities will influence decisions by governmental and non-governmental funders – and those who influence them! So far, I see little evidence that these key players are paying attention. Some Forest Service scientists and academics are pushing for expanded resistance-breeding efforts. Others are writing sophisticated analyses of non-native pests’ ecosystem impacts. But is the USDA leadership supporting stronger pest-prevention measures? Or funding for research on restoration of species? Are conservation NGOs addressing introduced forest pests?

Here, I summarize new work by Kevin Potter and his colleagues, published in two papers (full references at the end of this blog). After reading my summary, I’d like to know: What do you think? Do you agree with the focus on individual species’ regeneration to set conservation and control priorities? Do you agree with the priority species and geographic regions they suggest?? How should we resolve inconsistencies compared to the priorities suggested by the IUCN and Morton Arboretum? If you do agree, how would you suggest we move forward? If not, what approach do you think would be more useful?

A New Approach to Evaluating Species at Risk

Potter and Riitters (2022) point out that a species’ successful regeneration is key to its population’s future genetic diversity. That, in turn, determines the organisms’ ability to adapt to environmental stress and change. The latter includes, but is not limited to, climate change. Because trees are immobile and long-lived, their populations probably require substantially more genetic variation than those of other kinds of plants.

Potter and colleagues (both articles) used FIA survey data to examine regeneration rates by both tree species native to the continental United States (= CONUS) and non-native tree species introduced to CONUS, Hawai`i, or Puerto Rico. I rejoice that they have included these tropical islands, which are part of the United States and are centers of plant endemism. (Two other blogs provide details on their findings in Hawai`i and Puerto Rico.

Native Trees at Risk: Focus on Poor Regeneration

For CONUS, Potter and Riitters (2022) asked whether 280 native forest tree species are regenerating at sustainable levels, both across their full ranges and in regional portions of their ranges, defined by provisional seed zones (an area within which plant materials are assumed to be adapted). Tree species for which FIA surveys placed 75% of the stems in the sapling or seedling classes are determined to be regenerating at sustainable levels. Tree species exhibiting lower proportions of their stems in these “small tree” classes are said to be failing to regenerate adequately.

Potter and Riitters (2022) found that 46 of the 280 native tree species (16.4%) might be at risk of losing important levels of genetic variation (see the list of species in Table 2 of the article). These included high proportions of species evaluated in the following genera: two of three Platanus species; two of four Nyssa species; about 40% of Juniperus and Pinus; and five of 46 Quercus species (10.9%).

[Many areas of the eastern forest, especially in the Mid-Atlantic region, are reported by Stout, Hille, and Royo (2023) to be have insufficient advance regeneration to replace canopy trees.]

Some species appear to be headed toward outright extinction, not only loss of genetic diversity. These include four relatively rare species in California: Pinus muricata, Platanus racemosa, Pseudotsuga macrocarpa, and Sequioadendron giganteum. No seedlings or saplings are recorded on the plots on which they occurred. I note that Platanus racemosa in southern California is being attacked and killed by the Fusarium dieback vectored by the polygamous and Kuroshio shot hole borers.

*Platanus racemosa* riddled by invasive shot hole borer; photo by Beatriz Nobua-Behrmann, University of California Cooperative Extension

I find it alarming that a few of the possibly at-risk species have extremely wide distributions. These are Populus deltoides (eastern cottonwood), Platanus occidentalis (American sycamore), and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Another group of species are classified as at potential risk in all their seed zones: Juniperus californica, Juniperus osteosperma, Pinus pungens, and Quercus lobata (valley oak). I note that valley oak is also under attack by the recently introduced Mediterranean oak borer. Its vulnerability is exacerbated by its relatively small range.

Potter and Riitters (2022) found distinct geographic hot spots: 15 at-risk species occur primarily in the Southeast and 14 species are in California; both represent nearly a third of the at-risk species.

In general, high rates of regeneration failure are seen in the West. Nine at-risk species (19.6% of the 46) grow in the Southwest, eight in Texas (17.4%), and four in the Rocky Mountains (8.7%). However, the Northeast and Midwest are not immune. Seven species from the former and six from the latter are also regenerating poorly. Considering pines alone, seven of 14 at-risk speciesare in the West and five in the Southeast.

Seed Zones: a Proxy for Local Genotypes

As I noted at the beginning, Potter and Riitters (2022) used USDA Forest Service provisional seed zones as a proxy for areas in which a species is presumably locally adapted. In addition to the 46 species considered failing to regenerate adequately throughout their entire ranges, Potter and Riitters (2022) determined that another 39 species are at potential risk of losing locally adapted genotypes. That is, their regeneration levels fell below the threshold in at least half of the seed zones in which they occurred. These potentially at-risk species are in the same taxonomic groups: 13 pines (33.3% of the 39 species in the category), six junipers (15.3%), and three oaks (7.7 %). These, too are concentrated in the Southeast and California: 40% are in the former — including both bald-cypress species — and 30.8% are in California. Another seven species (17.9% of the 39) are in Texas. The Midwest is home to seven species, the Northeast and Southwest each has five species (12.8%), and the Rocky Mountain region has three species (7.7%).

Bald-cypress; photo by Kej605 via WikiMedia

The seed zones with the largest numbers of species regenerating poorly are in the East, specifically the central Great Lakes region, western New York and Pennsylvania, along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, and the coastal plain from southern South Carolina to eastern Texas. Potter and Riitters (2022) say these areas have such high numbers of at-risk species because they are home to so many tree species. I note [although Potter and Riitters (2022) do not] that these regions have also experienced severe levels of tree mortality due to the emerald ash borer (mature and young trees), beech leaf disease (primarily young trees), and laurel wilt disease (sub-canopy trees).

A different geographic pattern appears when considering the proportion — rather than the number — of species facing deficits in regeneration. In several Western regions, 60 – 100% of the tree species fell below the study’s threshold of 75% of recorded stems being in the sapling or seedling sizes. These seed zones are found particularly in parts of California, the Southwest, the Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest. In none of the seed zones in the East are more than 50% of tree species in the category of potentially losing genetic variation. The implication is that while more species might be lost from parts of the East, the loss of fewer species in some Western seed zones could result in larger impacts on the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems there.

Potter and Riitters (2022) say that their approach has limitations because it relies on an assumption that a lack of smaller (i.e., younger) trees is an indication that a species has inadequate regeneration across all or part of its distribution and thus is vulnerable to losing genetic variation. They are not able to quantify directly the genetic variation within most forest tree species. In addition, the choice of 75% or fewer of all trees being seedlings or saplings threshold as the threshold is arbitrary. They believe these decisions are defensible.

Potter and Riitters (2022) hope that indicators of forest sustainability such as this can bridge the gap between scientists, forest managers, policy makers, and other stakeholders.

Further, the authors hope that this approach will help prioritize species most in need of: 1) monitoring for genetic diversity, 2) in situ conservation, and 3) ex situ propagule collections. In a future blog I will compare the species highlighted by Potter and Riitters (2022) to the earlier priority list developed by the IUCN and Morton Arboretum. Finally, the focus on regeneration levels could help scientists design representative sampling protocols for range-wide ex situ propagule collections for genetic diversity studies using molecular markers.

Applying This Analysis to Invasions by Non-native Trees

In a second study, Potter, Riitters, and Guo (full citation at end of this blog) flipped the focus: they used the same approach to quantify the degree of invasion by non-native trees in the U.S. I’ve blogged about this study, in general, here. Also see my separate blogs for its welcome application to Hawai`i and Puerto Rico.

Again, Potter, Riitters, and Guo hope their approach will assist in the crucial, difficult task of distinguishing between high-impact and less threatening non-native species. They warn, however, that the FIA survey procotol does not suit the needs of an early detection system.

Differentiating Invasive Tree Species’ Impacts

Potter, Riitters, and Guo note that thousands of non-native tree species have been planted around world to provide an extensive list of ecosystem services. Globally, 400 tree species have been recognized as naturalized (= consistently reproducing) or invasive (= spreading) in areas outside their native ranges. Contrary to some expectations, even relatively undisturbed forests are affected by invasive plants. In the continental United States, many fewer invasive plant species are trees than other forms/habits – shrubs, forbs, gramminoids. On the tropical islands, a much higher proportion of invasive plants are trees.

Lugo et al. (2022; full citation at end of this blog) find non-native tree species occupy a tiny fraction of the forest area of the continental United States [= CONUS], i.e., only 2.8% of the area, and only 0.4% of all tree species recorded in the FIA plots. However, these non-native tree species are widespread. They are found in 61% of forested ecosections in CONUS. Also, they are becoming more common in invaded sites. [Ecosections are divisions within 37 ecological provinces in the hierarchical framework developed by Cleland et al. (2007). There are 190 ecosections in U.S. forest biomes.]

Potter, Riitters, and Guo categorized those non-native tree species with at least 75% of stems detected by FIA surveys to be in sapling or seedling size as highly invasive. In other words, these species are successfully reproducing after reaching the canopy. So they might be more likely to alter forest functions and ecosystem services than those reproducing less robustly. They classified as species with 60 – 75% of recorded stems in these “small tree” categories as “moderately invasive.”

Potter, Riitters, and Guo suggest that control might more productively target the moderately invasive species in geographic regions where they have spread less so far – so presumably fewer seed-bearing mature specimens are present. They list as examples Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, and Paulownia tomentosa.

In CONUS, FIA protocols specify reporting of 30 non-indigenous tree species.

Acer platanoides

Ailanthus altissima

Albizia julibrissin

Alnus glutinosa

Castanea mollissima

Casuarina lepidophloia

Cinnamomum camphora

Citrus sp.

Elaeagnus angustifolia

Eucalyptus globulus

Eucalyptus grandis

Ginko biloba

Melaleuca quinquenervia

Melia azedarach

Morus alba

Paulownia tomentosa

Picea abies

Pinus nigra

Pinus sylvestris

Populus alba

Prunus avium

Prunus persica

Salix alba

Salix sepulcralis

Sorbus aucuparia

Tamarix spp

Triadica sebifera

Ulmus pumila

Vernicia fordii

About half of these –16 species – qualified under the Potter, Riitters, and Guo criteria as highly invasive: Acer platanoides, Ailanthus altissima, Albizia julibrissin, Cinnamomum camphora, Elaegnus angustifolia, Melia azedarach, Melaleuca quinquenervia, Morus alba, Picea abies, Pinus nigra, Prunus avium, Salix alba, Salix sepulcralis, Triadica sebifera, Ulmus pumila, Vernicia fordii. An additional four taxa are ranked as potentially highly invasive: Tamarix; Eucalyptus grandis and E. globulus, Populus alba.

ring-billed gulls eating berries of Chinese tallowtree (*Triadica sebifera*); photo by TexasEagle via Flickr

I ask : Do YOU agree that these taxa are the most important to be tracking as potentially invasive in forests of the continental United States?

Potter, Riitters, and Guo distinguish between the most “common” and the most “widespread” invasive tree species – although they do not define the differences. Some of the most “common” or “widespread” species are not a surprise: Ailanthus altissima, Triadica sebifera (syn. Sapium sebiferum), and Acer platanoides. Ailanthus is categorized as highly invasive in 39 of 44 ecoregions in which it occurs. It is also notoriously difficult to manage. Triadica sebifera is classified as highly invasive in every one of the 20 ecoregions in which it occurs. It produces prolific seed crops that are widely dispersed by birds and water. It can invade both disturbed and undisturbed habitats. Some of the common or widespread species do surprise me: Ulmus pumila, Morus alba and Picea abies.

Most of the non-native tree species occur on only 2% of plots in the ecoregions in which they occur. However, some highly invasive trees exceed this level:

Triadica sebifera is detected on 8.6% of plots on average across 20 ecoregions;

Ulmus pumila is detected on 3.7% of plots across 39 ecoregions;

Elaeagnus angustifolia is detected on 3.3% of plots in 13 ecoregions;

Melaleuca quinquenervia is detected on 2.7% of plots in 4 ecoregions.

A. altissima is detected on only 2% of plots in the 44 ecoregions. This is surprising to me. I see it everywhere in the Mid-Atlantic – and elsewhere!

[In USFS Region 9 (24 states in the Northeast and Midwest), FIA surveys in 2019 detected Ailanthus on only 3% of plots, Norway maple and Siberian elm each on only 1% of plots (Kurz 2023).]

Eastern U.S. forests are invaded at rates several times those in Western forests, both as a proportion of plots that are invaded and the diversity of plant growth forms. The probability of invasion is highest in Eastern forests that are relatively productive and located in fragmented landscapes that contain developed or agricultural land. Non-native invasive trees are most prevalent along the Gulf Coast and in Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern States. Highly invasive non-native trees are most diverse in the ecoregions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. I note that these regions also rank high in numbers of native tree species determined by Potter et al.’s other study to be reproducing an unsustainable levels.

The study found that non-native trees are almost entirely absent from the Rocky Mountain States and Alaska. However, I have seen Ailanthus in riparian areas of Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. While few non-native tree species are recorded from ecoregions along the Pacific Coast, those areas are heavily invaded by other types of plants. Lugo et al. say those shrubs and forbs are not interfering with forest regeneration. Do YOU agree?

BLM & USFS botanists removing Spanish broom from Rogue River Canyon; photo by Stacy Johnson, BLM

On tropical islands included in the study – Hawai`i and Puerto Rico – the situation is very different. Together, these islands’ tree canopy covers less than 0.5% that of the area in the lower 48. Hawai`i is recognized as a global hotspot of non-native species richness. Naturalized non-native plant taxa constitute about half of the Hawaiian flora. The US Forest Service tracks twice as many non-native tree species in Hawai`i (62) than over the entire continental U.S. plus Alaska.

Of these 62 species, Potter, Riitters, and Guo identified 26 tree species as either highly or moderately invasive, either already or potentially highly invasive, three as moderately invasive, seven as potentially moderately invasive. In general, the richness of non-native tree species is higher in lower-elevation ecoregions, especially the lowland/leeward dry and mesic forests on O’ahu and lowland wet and mesic forests of the Big Island. [The article makes a brief reference to the probable role of rapid ʻōhiʻa death opening the canopy of the mesic and wet forests, thereby facilitating plant invasions.] Most Hawaiian ecoregions, especially those on O’ahu and Hawai’i Island, had higher non-native tree species richness than even the most highly invaded ecoregions in the lower 48 states. Parts of O’ahu & Maui had the most non-native tree species classified as highly invasive.

The Caribbean archipelago – including but not limited to Puerto Rico – has a lower proportion of non-native plant species than Hawai’i — 17% of plant species are not native. However, their presence is even higher: two-thirds of Puerto Rico’s forests comprise novel tree assemblages. This is probably because Puerto Rico has half the land area of the Hawaiian archipelago and has been part of global trade networks for 500 years instead of 200. Potter and colleagues identified 17 non-native tree species as highly invasive, 16 as potentially highly invasive, and two as moderately invasive.

On the continent only seven of 30 non-native tree species occurr on at least 2% of FIA plots across the ecoregions in which they are inventoried. Hawai’i is stunningly different: 56 of 62 species occurr on at least 2% of plots across ecoregions on average; 24 species are present on at least 10% of plots on average. One species, Psidium cattleyanum, is present on nearly half of surveyed plots across 13 ecoregions! In Puerto Rico, 21 species occurred on at least 2% of the FIA plots.

Acacia confusa – highly invasive in dry forests of Hawai`i; photo by Forrest and Kim Starr

Potter, Riitters, and Guo could not assess the invasiveness of several species that occurred only as small stems in a couple of plots. There are 11 such species on Hawai`i, eight on Puerto Rico. These species might be in the early stages of widespread invasion, or they might never be able to reproduce and spread. Despite the uncertainty, the authors suggest that eradication or control efforts targetting these species might be more cost-effective since presumably few trees have reached reproductive age yet. In Puerto Rico, they single out Schinus terebinthifolius, since it is already recognized as moderately invasive in Hawai`i [I add – seriously invasive in nearby Florida!]. However, they also emphasize the threat from one of the widespread species, Syzgium jambos, because it is a shade-tolerant species that can form dense, monotypic stands under closed canopies

I have posted separate blogs providing more details on the invasive tree species in Hawai`i and Puerto Rico.

Limits of the FIA Dataset

As in the study of native species regeneration, Potter, Riitters, and Guo specify limits arising from use of the FIA dataset. Two seem particularly pertinent to evaluation of the situation on the tropical islands.

First, they cataloged only those non-native tree species chosen by the FIA program administrators to track in the three major regions. Again, I ask YOU whether you agree with the species being recorded. Should others species be included? Should some of these species be dropped?

Second, the survey protocol does not differentiate between sites with significantly different status and history. For example, non-native trees growing on abandoned agricultural sites are counted the same way as those growing in presumably old-growth forests. They conclude that including such sites might explain the records of Eucalyptus and pine species in surveys on the islands.

Finally, as noted in the other study, the program incorporates plots that contain at least 10% canopy cover by live trees or had such cover in the past. The inventory has not included urban parks – although in recent years an urban inventory protocol has been developed.

I remind you that Potter, Riitters, and Guo warned that the FIA inventory is not designed to detect newly introduced species that are early in the invasion process.

SOURCES

Kurtz, C.M. 2023. An assessment of invasive plant species in northern U.S. forests. Res. Note NRS-311. http://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-RN-311

Lugo, A.E., J.E. Smith, K.M. Potter, H. Marcano Vega, and C.M. Kurtz. 2022. The Contribution of NIS Tree Species to the Structure and Composition of Forests in the Conterminous United States in Comparison with Tropical Islands in the Pacific & Caribbean. USDA USFS General Technical Report IITF-54.

Potter, K.M and Riitters, K. 2022. A National Multi-Scale Assessment of Regeneration Deficit as an Indicator of Potential Risk of Forest Genetic Variation Loss. Forests 2022, 13, 19. https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010019.

Potter K.M., Riitters, K.H. and Guo, Q. 2022. Non-native tree regeneration indicates regional and national risks from current invasions. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change doi: 10.3389/ffgc.2022.966407

Stout, S.L., A.T. Hille, and A.A. Royo. 2023. Science-Management Collaboration is Essential to Address Current & Future Forestry Challenges. IN United States Department of Agriculture. Forest Service. 2023. Proceedings of the First Biennial Northern Hardwood Conference 2021: Bridging Science and Management for the Future. Northern Research Station General Technical Report NRS-P-211 May 2023

Posted by Faith Campbell

www.fadingforests.org

Let’s Not Dismiss Conservation of Biodiversity While Seeking Carbon Storage in Forests

red deer on farm in New Zealand; photo by Bernard Spragg via Flickr

Among the non-native species damaging forest systems are mammals – introduced deer, goats and sheep, and swine, … These animals have the greatest impacts on island systems that are sufficiently isolated that they have no native terrestrial mammals, e.g., Hawai`i and New Zealand. Several New Zealanders have published a study of their impacts (Allen et al.; full citation at end of the blog). The focus of their analysis is the native forests’ ability to sequester carbon and thus mitigate climate change. The scientists are well aware, however, that forests provide many other ecosystem values and services, including biodiversity, water supply and quality, etc.

Introduced ungulates can have many direct effects: reduction and damage to understory biomass, depletion of seedling regeneration, exacerbated soil erosion, and local nutrient imbalances. Mammals’ browsing can modify the composition of plant communities by favoring abundance of unpalatable species. Changes also can alter ecosystem functions associated with nutrient cycling, e.g., by reducing nutrient returns to the soil and altering rates of litter decomposition

In these ways, introduced ungulates exert long-term impacts on forests’ capacity to store carbon.

Allen et al. aimed to determine the extent of these effects on forests’ capacity to store carbon, both above- and below-ground, and on forest structure and diversity. The authors compared data from 26 pairs of sites across New Zealand – half with ungulate exclosures and half adjacent unfenced control plots. The ungulate exclosures had all been established for at least 20 years. All the sites were in species-rich communities of conifers and broadleaved evergreen angiosperm trees. These forests (1) cover about one-third of the country’s remaining mature natural forest; (2) contain tree species of a wide range of palatability to ungulate herbivores; and (3) have been named a conservation priority for forest carbon management. The ungulates present on the plots were European red deer (Cervus elaphus), fallow deer (Dama dama), sika deer (Cervus nippon), and feral goats (Capra hircus).

They assert that New Zealand is a good place to do this type of study because ungulate introductions are relatively recent so their impacts are well documented.

Allen et al. found that managing invasive ungulates makes valuable contributions to conserving biodiversity but not to carbon sequestration. They found little difference in total ecosystem carbon between ungulate exclosures and unfenced control plots. Most of the difference they did find was explained by the biomass of the largest tree within each plot. As they point out, these large trees have been unaffected by invasive ungulates introduced during the last 20–50 years. However, they believe ungulate-caused changes in understory biomass, species composition, and functional diversity might result in major shifts in the diversity and composition of regenerating species. Hence, longer term consequences for both ecosystem processes and storage of forest carbon storage can be expected.

Indeed, excluding ungulates did increase the abundance and diversity of saplings and small trees. The basal area of the smallest class of tree size was 70% greater. Species richness of small trees and saplings was 44% and 68% higher, respectively. This difference had little impact on overall carbon storage, however, because the small trees and saplings store only about 5%. In contrast, the largest tree size class (dbh =/>30 cm), with their roots, contributed 44% of total ecosystem carbon in both exclosure and control plots. The largest effects of exclosures on carbon stocks were in early successional stands, e.g., those affected by such major disturbances as windthrow, volcanic activity, or landslides.

Climate change is expected to cause surprising interactions among forest productivity, herbivory, disturbance. Allen et al. suggest that authorities should focus on excluding ungulates on these highly productive regenerating forests rather than old-growth forests. I am disturbed by this suggestion. It exposes the most biologically diverse forests to continuing damage.

Data gaps

New Zealand has many long-lived, slow-growing tree species. Recruitment of understory trees is already low across both main islands. This situation has been attributed to ungulate browsing. Over centuries, this might result in shifts in the canopy composition. Allen et al. call for additional research to increase our understanding of how browsing and other short-and long-term drivers affect the regeneration of large trees. Also, data on soil CO₂ emissions needs better integration.

Australian brushtail possum; photo by Peter Firminger via Flickr

The study did not consider the impact of other introduced mammals, such as feral pigs (Sus scrofa), rodents, and Australian brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). The possum is known to damage New Zealand trees. The scientists did not explain this omission; I assume it might have been the result of either lack of resources to support a broader study or differences in management strategies – or both?

I note that the study also did not address the extent to which non-native pathogens threaten these large trees. In response to my query, Kara Allen said that their plots did not include many kauri (Agathis australis) trees, so the severe dieback disease caused by Phytophthora agathidicida did not affect their results. Naturally regenerating kauri is limited to a small area of warm temperate rainforests located at the top of the North Island. So kauri potentially play a relatively small role in terms of overall carbon stocks in New Zealand’s forests. On the other hand, Allen says that myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) could have a major impact on New Zealand forests’ carbon storage. Trees in the host family, Myrtaceae, are ecologically important across both islands. Also, they comprise a large portion of overall forest carbon stocks (ranked in the top 5 largest families for above- and belowground biomass). An example is southern rata (Mterosideros umbellata), which are preferentially fed on by Australian brush possum.

Bernd Blossey, (free access!) who has long studied the role of high deer populations in North American forests, praises the study’s attempt to measure data, not just rely on models, and its inclusion of soil. However, he notes other limitations of the New Zealand study:

The small exclosures (20 x 20 m) are subject to edge effects. Some of Blossey’s exclosures occupy 2 hectares.
Twenty years is too short a time for analysis of such long-term processes as carbon sequestration and regeneration of slow-growing trees. Therefore, any results must be considered preliminary. Furthermore, no one recorded any differences in carbon sequestration of the paired plots at the time the exclosures were set up.
There’s no mention of possible impacts by introduced earthworms.

Dr. Blossey recognizes that the current study’s authors cannot re-do actions taken decades in the past. Still, the data gaps reduce the value of the findings.

I conclude that uncertainties continue due to: the long timelines of species’ regeneration and growth to full sizes; the requirement for large exclosures; the complexity of factors affecting carbon sequestration; and probably other influences.. Managers trying to maximize carbon sequestration are forced to act without truly knowing the best strategy or how their actions will affect the future.

For more about invasive mammals’ impacts in U.S. forests, also see the study by USFS scientists, Poland et al. (full citation listed in sources). One can enter “mammal” in the search box for the on-line PDF.

SOURCES

Allen, K., P.J. Bellingham, S.J. Richardson, R.B. Allen, L.E. Burrows, F.E. Carswell, S.W.Husheer, M.G. St. John, D.A. Peltzer, M. Whenua. 2023. Long-term exclusion of invasive ungulates alters tree recruitment and functional traits but not total forest carbon. Ecological Applications. 2023; e2836. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/r/eap

Poland, T.M., Patel-Weynand, T., Finch, D., Miniat, C. F., and Lopez, V. (Eds) (2019), Invasive Species in Forests and Grasslands of the United States: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the United States Forest Sector. Springer Verlag. The on-line version as at https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-45367-1

Posted by Faith Campbell

www.fadingforests.org

Global Overview of Bioinvasion in Forests

black locust – one of the most widespread invasive tree species on Earth; photo via Flickr

In recent years there has been an encouraging effort to examine bioinvasions writ large see earlier blogs re: costs of invasive species – here and here. One of these products is the Routledge Handbook of Biosecurity and Invasive Species (full citation at end of this blog). I have seen only the chapter on bioinvasion in forest ecosystems written by Sitzia et al. While they describe this situation around the globe, their examples are mostly from Europe.

Similar to other overviews, this article re-states the widely-accepted attribution of rising numbers of species introductions to globalization, especially trade. In so doing, Sitzia et al. assert that the solution is not to curtail trade and movement of people, but to improve scientific knowledge with the goal of strengthening biosecurity and control programs. As readers of this blog know, I have long advocated more aggressive application of stronger restrictions on the most high-risk pathways. Still, I applaud efforts to apply science to risk assessment.

Sitzia et al. attempt to provide a global perspective. They remind readers that all major forest ecosystems of Earth are undergoing significant change as a result of conversion to different land-uses; invasion by a wide range of non-native introduced species—including plants, insects, and mammals; and climate change. These change agents act individually and synergistically. Sitzia et al. give greater emphasis than other writers to managing the tree component of forests. They explain this focus by asserting that forest management could be either the major disturbance favoring spread of non-native species or, conversely, the only way to prevent further invasions. They explore these relationships with the goal of improving conservation of forest habitats.

Japanese stiltgrass invasion; photo by mightyjoepye via Flickr

Sitzia et al. focus first on plant invasions. They contend that – contrary to some expectations – plants can invade even dense forests despite competition for resources. They cite a recent assessment by Rejmánek & Richardson that identified 434 tree species that are invasive around Earth. Many of these species are from Asia, South America, Europe, and Australia. These non-native trees can drive not only changes in composition but also in conservation trajectories in natural forests. However, the example they cite, Japanese stilt grass (Microstegium vimineum) in the United States, is not a tree! Sitzia et al. note that in other cases it is difficult to separate the impacts of management decisions, native competitive species, and non-native species.

Sitzia et al. note that plant invasions might have a wide array of ecological impacts on forests. They attempt to distinguish between

“drivers” of environmental change – including those with such powerful effects that they call them “transformers”;
“passengers” whose invasions are facilitated by other changes in ecosystem properties; and
“backseat drivers” that benefit from changes to ecosystem processes or properties and cause additional changes to native plant communities.

An example of the last is black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia). This North American tree has naturalized on all continents. It is a good example of the management complexities raised by conflicting views of an invasive species’ value, since it is used for timber, firewood, and honey production.

Sitzia et al. then consider invasions by plant pathogens. They say that these invasions are one of the main causes of decline or extirpations in tree populations. I applaud their explicit recognition that even when a host is not driven to extinction, the strong and sudden reduction in tree numbers produces significant changes in the impacted ecosystems.

American chestnut – not extinct but ecological role gone; photo by F.T. Campbell

Sitzia et al. contend that social and economic factors determine the likelihood of a species’ transportation and introduction. Specifically, global trade in plants for planting is widely recognized as being responsible for the majority of introductions. Introductions via this pathway are difficult to regulate because of the economic importance (and political clout) of the ornamental plants industry, large volumes of plants traded, rapid changes in varieties available, and multiple origins of trade. As noted above, the authors seek to resolve these challenges by improving the scientific knowledge guiding biosecurity and control programs. In the case of plant pathogens, they suggest adopting innovative molecular techniques to improve interception efficiency, esp. in the case of latent fungi in asymptomatic plants.

The likelihood that a pathogen transported to a new region will establish is determined by biogeographic and ecological factors. Like other recent studies, Sitzia et al. attempt to identify important factors. They name a large and confusing combination of pathogen- and host-specific traits and ecosystem conditions. These include the fungus’ virulence, host specificity, and modes of action, reproduction, and dispersal, as well as the host’s abundance, demography, and phytosociology. A key attribute is the non-native fungus’ ability to exploit micro-organism-insect interactions in the introduced range. (A separate study by Raffa et al. listed Dutch elm disease as an example of this phenomenon.) I find it interesting that they also say that pathogens that attack both ornamental and forest trees spread faster. They do not discuss why this might be so. I suggest a possible explanation: the ornamental hosts are probably shipped over wide areas by the plant trade.

surviving elms in an urban environment; photo by F.T. Campbell

Sitzia et al. devote considerable attention to bioinvasions that involve symbiotic relationships between bark and ambrosia beetles and their associated fungi. These beetles are highly invasive and present high ecological risk in forest ecosystems. Since ambrosia beetle larvae feed on symbiotic fungi carried on and farmed by the adults inside the host trees, they are often polyphagous. Bark beetles feed on the tree host’s tissues directly, so they tend to develop in a more restricted number of hosts. Both can be transported in almost all kinds of wood products, where they are protected from environmental extremes and detection by inspectors. Sitzia et al. specify the usual suspects: wood packaging and plants for planting, as ideal pathways. These invasions threaten indigenous species by shifting the distribution and abundance of certain plants, altering habitats, and changing food supplies. The resulting damage to native forests induces severe alterations of the landscape and causes economic losses in tree plantations and managed forests. The latter losses are primarily in the high costs of eradication efforts – and their frequent failure.

Eucalyptus plantation in Kwa-Zulu-Natal, South Africa; photo by Kwa-Zulu-Natal Department of Transportation

Perhaps their greatest contribution is their warning about probable damage caused by invasive forest pests in tropical forests. (See an earlier blog about invasive pests in Africa.) Sitzia et al. believe that bark and ambrosia beetles introduced to tropical forests threaten to cause damage of the same magnitude as climate change and clear cutting, but there is little information about such introductions. Tropical forests are exposed to invading beetles in several ways:

1) A long history of plant movement has occurred between tropical regions. Sitzia et al. contend that the same traits sought for commercial production contribute to risk of invasion.

2) Logging and conversion of tropical forests into plantation forestry and agriculture entails movement of potentially invasive plants to new areas. Canopies, understory plant communities, and soils are all disturbed. Seeds, insects, and pathogens can be introduced via contaminated equipment.

3) Less developed nations are often at a disadvantage in managing potential invasion. Resources may be fewer, competing priorities more compelling, or potential threats less obvious.

Sitzia et al. call for development of invasive species management strategies that are relevant to and realistic for less developed countries. These strategies must account for interactions between non-native species and other aspects of global environmental change. Professional foresters have a role here. One clear need is to set out practices for dealing with conflicts between actors driven by contrasting forestry and conservation interests. These approaches should incorporate the goals of shielding protected areas, habitat types and species from bioinvasion risk. Sitzia et al. also discuss how to address the fact that many widely used forestry trees are invasive. (See my earlier blog about pines planted in New Zealand.)

planted forest in Sardinia, Italy; photo by Torvlag via Flickr

In Europe, bark beetle invasions have damaged an estimated ~124 M m²between 1958 and 2001. Sitzia et al. report that the introduction rate of non-native scolytins has increased sharply. As in the US, many are from Asia. They expect this trend to increase in the future, following rising global trade and climate change. Southern – Mediterranean – Europe is especially vulnerable. The region has great habitat diversity; a large number of potential host trees; and the climate is dry and warm with mild winters. The region has a legacy of widespread planting of non-native trees which are now important components of the region’s economy, history and culture. These include a significant number of tree species that are controversial because they are – or appear to be – invasive. Thus, new problems related to invasive plants are likely to emerge.

Noting that different species and invasion stages require different action, Sitzia et al. point to forest planning as an important tool. Again the discussion centers on Europe. Individual states set forest policies. Two complications are the facts that nearly half of European forests are privately owned; and stakeholders differ in their understanding of the concept of “sustainability”. Does it mean ‘sustainable yield’ of timber? Or providing multiple goods and services? Or sustaining evolution of forest ecosystems with restrictions on the use of non-native species? Resolving these issues requires engagement of all the stakeholders.

Sitzia et al. say there has recently been progress. The Council of Europe issued a voluntary Code of Conduct on Invasive Alien Trees in 2017 that provides guidelines on key pathways. A workshop in 2019 elaborated global guidelines for the sustainable use of non-native tree species, based on the Bern Convention Code of Conduct on Invasive Alien Trees. The workshop issued eight recommendations:

Use native trees, or non-invasive non-native trees;
Comply with international, national, and regional regulations concerning non-native trees;
Be aware of the risk of bioinvasion and consider global change trends;
Design and adopt tailored practices for plantation site selection and silvicultural management;
Promote and implement early detection and rapid response programs;
Design and adopt practices for invasive non-native tree control, habitat restoration, and for dealing with highly modified ecosystems;
Engage with stakeholders on the risks posed by invasive NIS trees, the impacts caused, and the options for management; and
Develop and support global networks, collaborative research, and information sharing on native and non-native trees.

SOURCE

Sitzia, T., T. Campagnaro, G. Brundu, M. Faccoli, A. Santini and B.L. Webber. 2021 Forest Ecosystems. in Barker, K. and R.A. Francis. Routledge Handbook of Biosecurity and Invasive Species. ISBN 9780367763213

Posted by Faith Campbell

www.fadingforests.org

Eradicating Invasive Species: You need “social license” to succeed

spread of non-native conifers in mountains of New Zealand; photos by Richard Bowman; New Zealand government website

As those of us who want to “do something” to counter bioinvasions struggle to mobilize both the resources and the political will necessary, I rejoice that more studies are examining what factors affect “social license” [= public approva] for such programs. One such study was recently published in New Zealand — Mason et al. (full citation at the end of the blog). New Zealand enjoys a greater appreciation of the uniqueness of its biology and awareness of invasive species’ impacts than the United States. However, their findings might provide useful guidance in the US and elsewhere.

Mason et al. sought to understand motivations of, and constraints on, those local groups responsible for controlling the spread of non-native conifers into New Zealand’s remnant native ecosystems. Non-forest ecosystems across much of the country are at risk of rapidly transforming into exotic conifer forests. For these reasons, authorities are pressing for timely removal of existing seed sources, that is, mature non-native conifer trees of several species. The blog I posted earlier apparently describes effects of conifer invasions in lowland ecosystems, whereas the Programme described here is focused on high-elevation systems.

The eradication effort in the study is the National Wilding Conifer Control Programme, establishedin 2016. A large increase in funding provided during the COVID-19 lockdown made it practical to try to eradicate seed sources from large swathes of vulnerable land. The Programme coordinates control efforts across the country, working across property and land-tenure boundaries. Landowners are expected to cover 20% of the cost of removing conifers from their land. Since removing all seed sources of high-risk conifer species from the landscape is key to achieving long-term goals, success is unlikely if significant seed sources are allowed to persist.

Mason et al. combined workshops, questionnaires, and site visits to gather data on particular aspects of this Programme. They found that social resistance, rather than lack of scientific knowledge, was often the main barrier to success in managing widespread invasive species. The authors do not address whether the fact that only 30 people provided information for their study might undermine the reliability of their findings.

map of conifer wilding sites; adapted from *Wilding conifers – New Zealand history and research background*, a presentation by Nick Ledgard at the “Managing wilding conifers in New Zealand – present and future” workshop (2003)

The authors suggest that the main benefit of scientific information might be to increase stakeholders’ support for management interventions — rather than to guide manager’ decisions about which strategies to pursue. To support social license, invasive species research programs might need to focus not only on cost-effective control technologies and strategies, but – perhaps especially — the benefits (both tangible and intangible) of invasive species control for society.

Mason et al. found that people were motivated to combat conifer invasions by impacts with direct influence on humans or human activities (e.g., reduced water yield, damage to infrastructure from wildfires, reduced tourist activities due to landscape transformation) and also by impacts affect ecosystems (e.g., impacts on biodiversity, aquatic ecosystems and landscapes).

People objected to control or eradication programs primarily because of social concerns. These included the unwillingness of landowners to participate and regulatory frameworks that had perverse incentives.

Mason et al. called for greater efforts by scientists to persuade stakeholders [p1] to allow removal of “wilding” conifers from private land and development of more appropriate regulations. They found that forecasting models were particularly effective in persuading people to support these efforts. It seems to me that outreach teams might need “translators” to convert scientists’ findings to information that would be more useful by stakeholders.

The authors concede that the “wilding conifer” situation has unique attributes. First, invading conifers present a stark, easily seen difference between native and invaded ecosystems. Second, some – but not all—stakeholders appreciate the uniqueness of New Zealand’s biomes. Third, the impacts of conifer invasion are sufficiently well known that they can be described succinctly and accurately.

Do these unique attributes undercut the relevance of this study to North America? It is still true that ongoing support from local stakeholders (including landowners and community groups) influences the effectiveness or profitability of managing invasive species. .It is also true that groups’ varying values affect willingness to support the activities.

Mason et al. think through the issue of stakeholders’ conflicting perspectives on the value of particular invasive species and the values threatened by that invader. These can include ethical or safety concerns around management methods, particularly regarding toxins and genetic modification. Economoic costs are also a factor – especially if the landowner must pay all or some of them.

I find it interesting that the government simultaneously funded a 5-year research program to study various issues regarding the spread, ecosystem impacts, and control of wilding conifers. The result is the Mason et al. study discussed here. I wish the U.S. funded independent analyses of its invasive species programs!

*Pinus contorta* – the most rapidly growing Pinus introduced to New Zealand; photo by Walter Siegmund / Wikimedia

More Details, Policy Suggestions

Workshop attendees unanimously identified landscape impacts as a reason for controlling wilding conifers. This primarily concerned the loss of New Zealand’s visual heritage or cultural identity rather than loss of native species’ habitats. When the landowner was raised in Europe, these cultural or heritage values sometimes had the opposite effect, since they see conifer forests as important components of “natural” landscapes.

Currently, landowner funding and permission is required for conifer removal. Some individual landowners want to establish new forestry plantings. Some resist removal of existing forestry plantations (which provide income) and shelter belts (which provide shelter for livestock in high country landscapes). Some landowners were unwilling to pay their 20% of removal costs. Or they objected to certain conifer control methods—particularly helicopter spraying of herbicides. New Zealand’s regulatory process also requires years of negotiating to remove standing trees – further delaying any action. In theory, landowners who resist removal could be prosecuted under the Biosecurity Act. However, this approach has never been tried for removing wilding conifers.

Mason et al. suggested several changes in policy to overcome some of these barriers.

First, forestry consultants can “game” the wilding conifer “risk calculator” to obtain government approval to establish conifer plantations in high-risk environments. The authors suggest that authorities create a “liability calculator.” Under this system, landowners wishing to retain conifers on their land for whatever reason would be liable for any subsequent containment costs. However, developing such a tool requires more finely-scaled models of conifer spread.

Second, given the high costs of combatting invading conifers if seed sources are allowed to persist, they suggested that it might be more cost-effective for the control program to pay for plantation removal under New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme.

Given the overwhelmingly social and regulatory nature of barriers to success, the primary role for scientific information is providing assessments of outcomes in the absence of wilding conifer control. Preferred messages were return-on-investment estimates and forecasts of ecosystem impacts, particularly relating to biodiversity loss, water yield reduction, and wildfire hazard. Forecasts were key to demonstrating that management interventions reduced future control costs and avoided environmental impacts which large sections of the community value (i.e. biodiversity loss, reduction in water yield and agricultural productivity, increased wildfire risks). Practitioners felt that forecasting models might also channel research toward areas of high uncertainty. Mason et al. recognize the difficulties presented by inherent complexity of ecological systems. However, they think “good practice” guidelines on forecasting are emerging.

The authors find that information content and presentation need to be tailored to the various audiences – most of whom lack experience in interpreting data from environmental forecasting models. They suggest that outreach materials focus on clear illustration of the tangible and intangible benefits of wilding conifer management rather than detailed explorations of scenarios. Participants suggested ways to improve the web tool to make it more accessible to a non-expert audience.

Mason et al. mention aspects that require balancing, but don’t suggest criteria for making these choices. They say it is important to include all relevant stakeholders in invasive species management governance bodies. The absence of stakeholders with positive attitudes to wilding conifer invasions led to unanticipated external social resistance to the Programme. They recognize that including stakeholders with conflicting interests might obstruct the decision-making process. Also, in areas where there has been success in containing conifers’ spread, people can’t see invading trees, so they don’t recognize the problem. They also note that existing data do not adequately recognize risks of spread from deliberately planted seed sources such as shelter-belts, plantations and amenity plantings. The authors do not discuss how to integrate these data into analyses and public outreach.

Finally, Mason et al. recognize that many other factors strongly influence stakeholders’ willingness to support invasive species control programs, especially the level of trust and strength of relationships between bioinvasion program staff and stakeholders.

Also, they suggest topics for future research: assessing how well forecasting models are integrated with communications with stakeholders; how qualitative and quantitative research methods in different fields might support one another; and empirical tests to measure the relative effects on social license of a) involving stakeholders in developing models, b) using forecasts to assess the consequences of different management decisions and, c) the usefulness of different methods for incorporating scientific information in stakeholder engagement.

SOURCE

Mason, N.W.H., Kirk, N.A., Price, R.J. et al. Science for social license to arrest an ecosystem-transforming invasion. Biol Invasions 25, 873–888 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-022-02953-w

see also https://www.doc.govt.nz/nature/pests-and-threats/weeds/common-weeds/wilding-conifers/

Posted by Faith Campbell

What do YOU think about the role “social license” plays in US invasive species programs? We welcome comments that supplement or correct factual information, suggest new approaches, or promote thoughtful consideration. We post comments that disagree with us — but not those we judge to be not civil or inflammatory.

www.fadingforests.org

Saving Old Trees is Key to CO2 Storage

The Old Man – a giant ash tree in Wytham Woods; photo from https://theoldmanofwytham.com/2018/11/29/ash-dieback-in-wytham-woods/

I campaign for protecting trees – especially trees growing to their natural capacity in the habitats in which they have evolved. I focus on the threat to these trees from non-native insects and various pathogens (fungi, nematodes …). I have often expressed my distress because others appear to place a low priority on this goal. I have also asked whether protecting trees might be given a higher priority by more decision-makers if they recognize trees’ vitally important role in countering climate change.

For this reason, I have blogged several times about studies examining the role trees play in sequestering carbon — see here & here & here.

A new study demonstrates that protecting large, old trees – almost by definition in their natural environment – is vitally important. Planting new, small, trees is helpful but cannot substitute for the venerable trees.

Calders and colleagues (full citation at the end of the blog; open access!) have used new technology to update assessments of the amount of carbon sequestered in trees. They conducted their study in a temperate hardwood forest – Wytham Woods, a typical broadleaf temperate forest in Oxfordshire, southern Great Britain. [Wytham Woods is also the site of two of the “Inspector Morse” mysteries – “Secret of Bay 5B” and “A Way Through the Woods”.]

They found that these trees sequester 1.77 times more carbon in their above-ground biomass (AGB) than previously believed based on currently-used models.

One consequence of their findings is that countries using the standard assessment method (which was developed by Robert Bunce in 1968) are reporting inaccurate carbon sequestration estimates to the United Nations per the Paris climate accords. (Calders et al. believe that calculations for conifer species are probably more accurate than those for deciduous forests.)

A second consequence is that death of large trees – from whatever cause – will result in greater loss of carbon storage than previously thought.

Old v. New Measurements

The underlying Bunce dataset and algorithm applied in most European biomass estimates were based on a small sample: 200 trees belonging to five taxa growing in one forest area. The models were derived by cutting down trees and weighing them to determine tree biomass. Smaller trees were used because they are easier to process. The scientists then extrapolated the biomass of bigger trees based on the assumption that correlation between tree size and mass is independent of tree size. This assumption has rarely been tested because of the difficulty and expense of carrying out this type of destructive sampling.

The higher estimates of carbon storage in Calders et al. arise in part from the bias towards small trees in calibration of the earlier models. Calders et al. found that trees do not follow a size-invariant scaling relationship, particularly at larger size; it is important to include crown area. Thus, Calders and colleagues calculated a higher sequestration rate for trees in Wytham Woods that fell within the size range used in developing the Bunce allometric model.

In addition, changes in forest management have increased the abundance of larger trees compared to the 1960s when Bunce carried out his study. Indeed, many of the trees in Wytham Woods are nearly twice as large as the trees used in the original calculation of biomass. The median dbh in Bunce (1968) is 8.4 cm; the mean dbh for the TLS dataset (based on a 2015 inventory) is 15.9 cm. The large trees represent a high proportion of the above-ground biomass: 50% of AGB in Wytham Woods was associated with fewer than 7% of the trees (those with dbh greater than 53.1 cm). All these trees were larger than the trees used to calibrate the widely used allometric model.

Calders et al. say that the distribution of tree size (trunk diameter) in Wytham Woods is representative of broadleaved species throughout Great Britain. Basal area had doubled in 40 years from 1974. Thus, the growth trajectory reflected at Wytham Woods – and presumably across Britain – resulted in a net carbon sink of ~1.77tha-1year-1ha in Calder et al’s 3D analysis. This is almost double the ~1tha-1year-1ha derived using the traditional allometric models. .

Methodology

graphic from Calders *et al*. large maple (green) and oak (blue) trees illustrated by LiDAR images – profiles and location in the forest (indicated by arrows); copyright Ecological Solutions and Evidence

Calder et al. used terrestrial laser scanning (TLS; terrestrial LiDAR) methods & 3-dimensional analysis to derive tree volume and convert this to above-ground biomass (AGB) and carbon sequestration. They scanned 815 live standing trees in Wytham Woods during winter so leaves did not complicate computations. They found:

total volume of these 815 trees was 742.6±3.9m³ha-1.
TLS-derived AGB = 409.9tha-1. This is significantly greater than the 231.9tha-1 resulting from applying the Bunce allometric models.
In sum, 1.77 times more carbon is stored per ha according to this model than carbon values derived through the allometric AGB models developed by Bunce.

A Fly in the Ointment

ash dieback in Great Britain; cc-by-sa/2.0 – © Adrian Diack – geograph.org.uk/p/6497286

Calder et al. describe the threat to European carbon sequestration projections caused by ash dieback. Ash dieback has been spreading across Europe since the 1990s – although the causal agent was not determined until 2006 (Paap et al.). It is killing European ash across the continent. Some of these trees are large – that is, store impressive amounts of carbon. In Wytham Woods specifically, ash dieback threatens some of the largest trees.

Ash dieback disease was first observed in the United Kingdom in 2012; it reached Wytham Woods in 2017. Ash contributed ~13.2% of the biomass carbon sequestration in the study area. However, the species’ presence in all of Wytham Woods might approach ~34%. Ash comprised 75% of seedlings in 2012. Ash is one of three species that contribute >26% of broadleaved tree AGB & carbon for Great Britain as a whole. The British Woodland Trust expects the UK to lose 80% of its ash trees. As a result, Wytham Woods, Britain, and, by extension, a significant amount of European temperate deciduous forests, are likely to become a substantial carbon source in the next decades.

I note that Europe has already lost any sequestration benefits it would have enjoyed from large elm trees due to “Dutch” elm disease. Various Phytophtoras are killing trees in Britain and Ireland.

CC BY-SA 2.0

I recently described threats to plane trees, pines, and other trees across Europe.

I interpret these findings as demonstrating that protecting large trees growing in natural ecosystems is highly important as we try to cope with climate change. This will require determined, sustained, and strategic actions in the face of disturbances predicted to increase as result of changes in climate and the human activities that contribute to climate change – e.g., overexploitation of natural resources, conversion of natural systems to human use, shipping goods around the globe, …

Calders and colleagues say we cannot afford to lose substantial reservoirs of carbon currently sequestered in temperate forests. Such forests currently account for ~14% of global forest carbon stocks in their biomass and soil. Their importance is growing because of widespread deforestation in the tropics.

What is To Be Done? (to cite Lenin)

Calders and colleagues call for several actions to address potential biases in biomass carbon estimates and drastically improve estimates of forest biomass:

(i) Research to improve knowledge about carbon sequestration levels in trees. This will require

a) greater sampling using such nondestructive methods as TLS to estimate AGB of a wider variety of forest types,

b) improved understanding of wood density, and

c) properly testing the fundamental assumption of size dependency in allometric models.

(ii) Develop empirical models of AGB that do not assume size invariance. This might require. This implies more destructive harvesting to obtain data from a variety of forest compositions, locations, etc,

(iii) Establish a biomass reference network of permanent sample plots specifically designed for estimating AGB. The improved data can then be fed into satellite-derived biomass estimates, which are likely to become the de facto standard for assessing the state and change of forest AGB at large scales. The GEO-TREES database can help. It aims to build on existing long-term ecological plot networks, by including TLS, airborne laser scanning & other ancillary data (including harvest measurements) to specifically allow for upscaling of AGB & development of new empirical models.

(iv) Ensure much better traceability in the use of allometric models. If applying a model to a site at several removes from the original data, e.g., published allometric models, clearly identify where and when the underpinning data were collected, the number and size range of trees from which models were derived, and clarify any assumptions regarding environmental conditions, wood density etc. Database initiatives such as GlobAllomeTree can help.

North American Situation

remains of Michigan’s champion green ash

A study in 2019 (Fei et al. 2019; full citation at end of the blog) has already estimated that 41% of total live (woody) biomass in forests of the “lower 48” states is at risk from the most damaging of introduced pests. The greatest biomass loss was caused by emerald ash borer, Dutch elm disease, beech bark disease, and hemlock woolly adelgid. Before arrival of these non-native pests, mature ash, elms, beech and hemlock were large – providing significant storage of carbon (and other ecosystem services). A complication is that elms and beech, at least, began dying decades before the underlying (Forest Inventory and Analysis; FIA) data began to be collected. Consequently, the reported mortality rates underestimate the actual loss in biomass associated with these pests.

Did Fei et al. rely on biomass estimates based on measurements and algorithms now questioned by Calders et al.? One of the co-authors, Dr. Randall Morin, has told me that USFS scientists are shifting to new models that will result in a slight bump in overall biomass for the U.S. largely because of increased recognition of the biomass in crowns and limbs. However, the new models are based partly on a felled-tree study, so I wonder if they will have similar issues.

Certainly in some situations that threat posed by non-native pests is not yet being adequately incorporated. Badgley et al. (2022) analyzed the California cap-and-trade program to determine whether forest projects enrolled under its provisions can provide sufficiently permanent carbon sequestration. They determined that sequestration losses tied to mortality of one tree species (tanoak; Notholithocarpus densiflorus) due to one disease – sudden oak death – would fully deplete the “buffer pool” set aside to compensate for losses due to disease and insect infestations. This leaves the program unable to provide the promised benefits in carbon sequestration. SOD continues to spread and tanoaks (and other tree species) to die. California along is home to other tree-killing pathogens and insects, e.g., white pine blister rust, Port-Orford cedar root disease, Fusarium dieback, goldspotted oak borer …

California live oak killed by GSOB; photo by F.T. Campbell

Furthermore, the program allows enrollment of forests across the United States, so the multiple pests threatening ash, hemlocks, oaks, and other tree taxa across North America must also be accommodated. I have not even mentioned the likelihood that additional tree-killing pests will be introduced in the future.

How can scientists enhance the credibility of well-intentioned efforts to incorporate forest conservation into strategies aimed at mitigating climate change?

[A separate study by Oxford University has estimated that 2 billion tonnes of CO2 are removed from the atmosphere every year – 99% of it by trees. They point out that this is not sufficient to help Earth avoid temperatures rising above Paris-set levels. See an article by Lottie Limb, Reuters, published 19 January 2023 (sorry – I don’t have a direct link).]

SOURCES

Badgley, G., Chay, F., Chegwidden, O.S., Hamman, J.J., Freeman J. and Cullenward, D. 2022. Calif’s forest carbon offsets buffer pool is severely undercapitalized. Front. For. Glob. Change 5:930426. doi: 10.3389/ffgc.2022.930426

Bunce, R. G. H. (1968). Biomass and production of trees in a mixed deciduous woodland: I. Girth and height as parameters for the estimation of tree dry weight. Journal of Ecology, 56, 759–775.

Calders, K., H. Verbeeck, A. Burt, N. Origo, J. Nightingale, Y. Malhi, P. Wilkes, P. Raumonen, R.G.H. Bunce, M. Disney. Laser scanning reveals potential underestimation of biomass carbon in temperate forest. Ecol Solut Evid. 2022;3:e12197. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/eso3 open access!

Paap, T., M.J. Wingfield, T.I. Burgess, J.R.U. Wilson, D.M. Richardson, A. Santini. 2022. Invasion Frameworks: a Forest Pathogen Perspective. FOREST PATHOLOGY Current Forestry Reports https://doi.org/10.1007/s40725-021-00157-4

(UK) Woodland Trust https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/trees-woods-and-wildlife/tree-pests-and-diseases/key-tree-pests-and-diseases/ash-dieback/

Posted by Faith Campbell

www.fadingforests.org

Climate Change + CO2 Levels – Can Scientists Include the Complexity in their Analyses?

Spruce budworm (*Choristoneura fumiferana*); photo by Jerald E. Dewey, USFS; via Bugwood; populations of several forest birds, including Cape May, Tennessee and Bay-Breasted warblers, become more numerous during budworm outbreaks

Now that Drs. Ziska and Aucott have educated us about the strong impact atmospheric CO₂ can have on both plants and phytopagous insects, I have asked the experts whether these interactions have been incorporated in the models scientists are using to forecast pest activity in American forests as the climate changes.

The answer is no.

bay-breasted warbler; photograph by Dave Inman at Presque Isle State Park, PA; via Flickr

Dr. Bethany A. Bradley, Co-Director, Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center at the University of Massachusetts, says empirical models of species range shifts typically only use climate and sometimes other environmental factors (like soils or topography) as predictors of potential geography. Inclusion of demographic processes like how plant growth is affected by more or less water, CO₂, competition with other plants etc. would require a lot of data. It is currently impossible since there are tens of thousands of plant species interacting in the forests of eastern North America – and perhaps these factors have been analysed for only a hundred of them.

Mike Aucott points to the same difficulty: inclusion of CO₂ in models of the future populations of specific plants would be difficult since the impacts vary from species to species and are compounded by other factors such as soil nitrogen levels, moisture levels, temperature, presence of competing plants, etc.

Regarding insects, Dr. Aucott thinks it is clear that some orders, such as Lepidoptera, don’t fare as well when feeding on plants grown under elevated CO₂. He is not aware of efforts to model impacts of high CO₂ on specific insects or even orders or feeding guilds.

juniper geometer (inchworm); Dr. Tallamy says inchworms are hairless & good tasting – so sought by birds

Dr. Ziska concurs about the difficulties. Dr. Ziska asks why there is so little funding to study these issues, especially given their probable impact on human food supplies and health – as described in his blog and an opinion piece published in Scientific American two years ago.

I hope that scientists, decision-makers, readers of this blog … maybe even the media! – take into consideration these complexities, even if they cannot be defined.

Posted by Faith Campbell

For a detailed discussion of the policies and practices that have allowed these pests to enter and spread – and that do not promote effective restoration strategies – [but do not address climate or CO2 aspects] review the Fading Forests report at http://treeimprovement.utk.edu/FadingForests.htm