forest pests – Page 14 – Center for Invasive Species Prevention

Imports Surge – Will Pests be Far Behind?

In August I blogged that import volumes had crashed … US imports from Asia declined each month from January through June (Mongelluzzo Dec 14; full citations at end of blog). However, the economic rebound over the summer brought a surge in imports that continues. Given our concern about introductions of tree-killing pests, it is not good news that imports from Asia are driving the growth in imports.

US imports from Asia during the first 11 months of 2020 were 2% higher than the figure from the first 11 months of 2019. In November alone, the U.S imported 1.6 million TEUs [twenty-foot equivalent units; a standard measurement that counts incoming volume as though contained in twenty-foot-long containers] worth of goods from Asia. Imports in December are projected to remain high (Mongelluzzo Dec 14; full citation at end of blog).

Imports from Asia were 1.626 million TEU in December – up 29.9% from December 2019 (although still lower than October and August). December imports were pushed by record e-commerce sales and shipments of personal protective equipment (PPE) and medical supplies. For all of 2020, imports from Asia totaled 16.6 million TEU, up 4.1% from 2019 (Mongelluzzo Jan. 19)

This surge in imports – which began in late June — is certain to continue at least for the next two months as retailers ship more merchandise before some factories in Asia close for the Lunar New Year (Mongelluzzo Jan 19).

Because of the history of tree-killing pests introduced from Asia, I have blogged most often about the situation at West Coast ports. However, in 2020 there has been a noticeable shift to East and Gulf Coast ports because of the congestion and delays at West Coast ports. Thus, in November 2020, West Coast ports handled 60.2% of imports from Asia; East Coast ports handled 33.7%; Gulf Coast ports handled 5.7%. The East Coast figure is 30% higher than over the same period in 2019. At New York-New Jersey specifically, the increase was 35.1% (Mongelluzo Dec 16). Imports to Gulf Coast ports continue to rise; Gulf Coast ports handled only 4.8% of total US imports from Asia during the first nine months in 2019 and less than 3% before the widening of the Panama Canal (in 2016) (Angell October 28). Link to blog #203 midNov (In future, goods shipped from Asia across the Arctic Ocean to the U.S. east coast could add to the pest risk confronting our already hard-hit Eastern Deciduous Forest.)

Pacific Coast Ports

According to Mongelluzzo (December 9), the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex (LA-LB) set records for US imports from Asia in August and again in October. The port complex handled 2.5 million TEU of imports from Asia in the three-month period of August through October. Despite shippers’ concern about delays, LA-LB is expected to continue to handle the bulk of Asian goods entering the country in coming months.

The ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach handle 50% of US imports from Asia. From July 2020 through February 2021, these ports received an average of 791,838 TEU each month – a 23% increase over the 2019 average of 642,000 TEU per month (Mongeluzzo April 2021).

Ports in the Southeast

As reported by Ashe (December 10), several ports in the southeast US are seeing record import volumes caused by retailers’ restocking, e-commerce, and Christmas shopping. November import volumes hit all-time highs in Savannah and Port of Virginia, while they were up year over year in Charleston. The three port authorities say the surge is the result of demand for furniture, bedding, refrigerators, freezers, and air conditioners – reflecting Americans’ current focus on improving their homes. Imports also include artificial Christmas trees (which have been a vector of pests in the past – as has furniture).

offloading cargo at Savannah; photo by F.T. Campbell

The volume of imports into Savannah from all sources surged 34% over the November 2019 volume. Imports from Asia rose 36%. Imports of furniture rose 42% in August and September. “Hardware, home goods, machinery, and appliances from Asia were up double digits,” according to Georgia Port Authority CEO Griff Lynch. Import volumes from Asia rose 36% in Virginia and 32% in Charleston.

Vessels Carry More Containers

Another threat of increased pest introductions arises from the increasing size of container ships. Increasing proportions of vessels with the capacity to carry more than 10,000 containers are arriving. Since 2010, the proportion of such ships arriving at West Coast ports has risen from 1.1% to 75.5%. The proportion arriving at East Coast ports has grown since the opening of the widened Panama Canal in 2017. The proportion of high-capacity ships visiting East Coast ports has risen from 3% in 2017 to 15% during the first 10 months of 2020. Gulf Coast ports receive few such vessels because the serve a smaller share of the U.S. market. The largest ships serve the trade from Asia primarily (Mongelluzzo Dec. 21, 2020). Of course, arrival of ten to fifteen thousand containers at once surely strains Custom’s inspection staff.

container ship in Savannah; Photo by F.T. Campbell

Imports from Geographic Regions Other Than Asia

Imports (from all sources) through New York and New Jersey ports were 22% percent higher in October 2020 than in October 2019 (Angell November 10). As noted above, most of the higher volume of imports originated in Asia.

According to Journal of Commerce staff (November 30), containerized imports from the Caribbean and Central America grew a negligible 0.1% over the same period last year. Principal ports for this trade are in Florida and along the Gulf Coast, but include Wilmington, DE, and Philadelphia.

According to JOC staff (November 2), containerized cargo import volumes from all regions flowing through the busiest US Gulf Coast ports declined 2.3% in the first seven months of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019.

Non-containerized cargoes — i.e., dry bulk, liquid bulk, roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro), and oversized/heavy-lift freight — are not included in these data. Dry bulk cargo through Houston has been reported to suffer problems in infested dunnage (wood used to brace non-containerized cargo, such as steel beams). Link to blog 173 February 2020

SOURCES

Angell, M. US Gulf pulls more Asian imports amid West Coast congestion Oct 28, 2020 https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/us-gulf-pulls-more-asian-imports-amid-west-coast-congestion_20201028.html

Angell, M. Railroads send railcars to NY-NJ as import pressure mounts Nov 10, 2020 https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/railroads-send-railcars-ny-nj-import-pressure-mounts_20201110.html?utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Port%20Newsletter%2011%2F18%2F20%20-%20With%20R__e-production_E-81883_AK_1118_1200&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua

Ashe, A. Import surge at Southeast ports tightens chassis availability Dec 10, 2020 https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/southeast-closing-out-2020-surging-volumes_20201210.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%20Newswire%2012%2F11%2F2020__e-production_E-84440_KB_1211_0617

JOC Staff JOC Rankings: Resins buoy US Gulf Coast ports during COVID-19 Nov 02, 2020 https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/joc-rankings-resins-buoy-us-gulf-coast-ports-during-covid-19_20201102.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%20Newswire%2011%2F3%2F2020%20__e-production_E-80030_TF_1103_0617

JOC Staff. JOC Rankings: US–Carib/Central America trade tumbles in 2020 Nov 30, 2020 https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/joc-rankings-slowing-us%E2%80%93caribcentral-america-trade-tumbles-2020_20201130.html?utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Port%20Newsletter%2012%2F2%2F20%20__e-production_E-83092_TF_1202_0900&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua

Mongelluzzo, B. Import deluge fills LA-LB terminals to capacity Dec 09, 2020 https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/import-deluge-fills-la-lb-terminals-capacity_20201209.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%20Newswire%2012%2F10%2F2020__e-production_E-84332_KB_1210_0617

Mongelluzzo, B. Asia-US import surge slowing slightly, but spreading to East, Gulf coasts Dec 14, 2020 https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/asia-us-import-surge-slowing-slightly-spreading-east-gulf-coasts_20201214.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%20Newswire%2012%2F15%2F2020__e-production_E-84893_KB_1215_0617

Mongelluzzo, B. US East Coast ports avoid gridlock despite rising volumes. Dec 16, 2020. https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/us-east-coast-ports-avoid-gridlock-despite-rising-volumes_20201216.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%20Newswire%2012%2F17%2F2020__e-production_E-85162_KB_1216_2139

Mongelluzzo, B. Increasing vessel sizes a red flag for US ports. Dec 21, 2020 https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/increasing-vessel-sizes-red-flag-us-ports_20201221.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%2012%2F22%2F20_JOC%20Daily%20Newswire_e-production_E-85422_KB_1222_0617

Mongelluzzo, B. US imports from Asia hit record December level. Jan 19, 2021 https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/us-imports-asia-hit-record-december-level_20210119.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%201%2F20%2F21_PC00000_e-production_E-87262_KB_0120_0617

Mongeluzzo, B. Additional port capacity alone can’t solve congestion issues: LA-LB. Journal of Commerce. April 2021 https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/additional-port-capacity-alone-can%E2%80%99t-solve-congestion-issues-la-lb_20210407.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%204%2F8%2F21_PC00000_e-production_E-95420_KB_0408_0837

Posted by Faith Campbell

We welcome comments that supplement or correct factual information, suggest new approaches, or promote thoughtful consideration. We post comments that disagree with us — but not those we judge to be not civil or inflammatory.

For a detailed discussion of the policies and practices that have allowed these pests to enter and spread – and that do not promote effective restoration strategies – review the Fading Forests report at http://treeimprovement.utk.edu/FadingForests.htm

Korea seeks (again!) to export high-risk trees to America

dwarfed *Ulmus davidiana*; photo by Krzsztof Zianek; Wikipedia Commons

USDA APHIS is seeking public input on a risk assessment that is intended to evaluate the risk of allowing importation of dwarf elm trees (bunjae) from South Korea. Importation of these trees is currently prohibited under APHIS’ authority to require a risk assessment before importation under the NAPPRA program. Upon receiving the Korean request, APHIS must decide whether to maintain the prohibition, or alter it. The risk assessment can be obtained here. Comments are due January 11, 2021.

I urge those with expert knowledge about phytophagous insects, nematodes, and fungal and other pathogens to prepare your own comments to APHIS.

[A year ago, Korea sought permission to export dwarfed maple trees to the U.S. CISP commented on APHIS’ risk assessment at that time; see my blog here. I believe APHIS has not yet decided whether to allow such imports. Many of the same issues apply here.]

After reviewing the risk assessment, I conclude that there are too many high-risk pests to support removing the taxon from the current restrictions. The history of introductions on dwarfed trees in the past supports this conclusion. The most conspicuous is the citrus longhorned beetle (Anoplophora chinensis) – the reason for the original NAPPRA listing – but there have been others, too.

The risk assessment has some strengths. I applaud the assessors for noting in each pest review that since the proposed imports are propagative material, all the pests will arrive on living hosts. The assessment then discusses – briefly! – the mechanisms by which the pest or pathogen could disperse to infest new trees – e.g., flight, rain splash, irrigation water. However, I think the assessment is sometimes too cautious in describing probable invasive risks.

I also find several important weaknesses in both the risk assessment process generally and specific findings.

Weaknesses of the Risk Assessment Process

The assessors do not discuss the potential efficacy of pest-management actions taken by the exporter or by USDA at ports of entry. They outlined production and harvesting practices that they assumed would apply to the exported plants. They warned that the risk assessment finding could not be applied to plants produced or handled other under conditions.

I am troubled by the assessors’ decision not to consider the plants’ ages and sizes. There is evidence that age and size are very important in determining the likelihood of pest presence. Perhaps the decision reflects the assumption that the exported plants would be less than four years old. Still, the assessors should have been transparent about the reasoning behind this decision.

The assessment underestimates “uncertainty”. One manifestation is the decision to provide little information about whether pests or pathogens known to attack several Eurasian species of Ulmus might also attack North American elm species. This gap arises, I believe, from the International Plant Protection Organization (IPPC) and APHIS requirement that risk analysts consider only pest-host relationships described in the literature or inferred from port interception data. I find this narrow approach to be a weakness, given how many unknown pest-host relationships have proved to be highly damaging. This issue arises specifically in the reviews of the nematode Meloinema kerongense and several powdery mildews (Erysiphe kenjiana, E. ulmi and Podosphaera spiralis) – all of which are identified as affecting at least some elm species.

Perhaps the missing information has fewer consequences here, since the NAPPRA process does not require that APHIS prove the pest-host relationship for every pest evaluated in order to justify retaining the prohibition on importation. The well-documented history of detecting the citrus longhorned beetle in artificially dwarfed trees and as a pest of the Ulmus genus provides more than sufficient justification to retain trade restrictions. Still, if APHIS is conducting a formal risk assessment, it should be thorough. Anything else sets an unfortunate precedent.

Finally, in cases when some of the hosts considered are commercial crops – e.g., fruit trees – the assessment often does not include forest trees as economically important resources at risk.

Questions re: some of specific pests in the analysis

3.2.1. Cerambycidae (Coleoptera)

The risk assessment notes the minimal information available regarding several cerambycid beetles present in Korea that are capable of feeding on elm trees. Collectively, these beetles have a wide host range — Acer, Alnus, Citrus, Ficus, Hibiscus, Juglans, Malus, Morus, Quercus, Populus, Prunus, Pyrus, Salix, Sorbus, and Ulmus. The beetles can thrive in the climate present across most of the Lower 48 states (USDA Plant Hardiness Zones 6-9). The risk assessment does mention the risk to urban and forest trees. It also mentions British detection of A. chinensis larvae in twigs of imported maple trees, but for some reason does not mention past U.S. detections and introductions of this beetle in maple bonsai/bunjae trees in Tukwila, Washington. Is this because the detections were 20 years ago? Does the passage of time make the detections any less relevant?

trees removed for CLB eradication in Tukwila, Washington

3.2.2. Archips xylosteana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)

The analysis of this tortricid moth notes its broad host range, including Abies, Acer, Betula, Fraxinus, Populus, Quercus, Salix, Sorbus, Tilia, and Ulmus. Yet the analysis makes no mention of the potential impact of moth larval feeding on the buds and flowers of forest trees. Nor does it discuss the moth’s impact in Canada, where it is established. The Canadian experience seems quite pertinent and is an obvious omission.

3.2.3. Meloinema kerongens

This nematode is present on elms in Korea. The assessors could find no information on the damage it causes to its hosts there. Again, there is no discussion of possible vulnerability of American elms. Apparently the nematodes are considered likely to survive the importation process, when the trees will be bare root. The assessors say that since the dwarfed trees (once imported) are likely to be planted in pots, that might limit the nematodes’ dispersal into native soil habitats and ability to infect new trees. This finding is troubling because it is likely that nematodes or their eggs could be present in the pots’ soil, and if that soil leaks from the pot or is disposed of during repotting or with other actions, pests could become established in native soil.

3.2.5. Helicobasidium mompa

This fungus causes root rot on multiple genera in 44 plant families. The list of hosts includes Pinus spp., Populus spp., Prunus spp., and Quercus spp. It appears to thrive in a wide climatic range covering virtually the entire Lower 48 states (USDA Plant Hardiness Zones 2-11). The fungus is spread via rain or irrigation water. I note that experience with the Phytophthora genus of brown algae has demonstrated how difficult it can be to control pathogens that spread in rain or irrigation water – in both nurseries and the wild.

Other Potential Pests

I urge experts to review the long list of pests not analyzed—especially the nematodes that inhabit the root and rhizosphere. Analysts did not analyze them because they are ectoparasites; they decided that ectoparasites were unlikely to remain with the dwarfed trees when they are shipped bare-root.

I also wonder whether the mistletoe Viscum album – a parasitic plant – might be spread onto the dwarfed trees by birds perching on branches or shelter structures above the production facilities. Assessors thought that dormant mistletoe on the plants would not be easily detected during visual inspection at the ports.

Posted by Faith Campbell

Pests Associated with Imports: Rising Risk for Gulf States

Port of Mobile, Alabama Photo by Port of Mobile Authority

In August and September I blogged about the rapid increase in volumes of imports from Asia, especially China, in 2020. At the time, the information available to me focused on the Pacific coast ports, especially Long Beach and Los Angeles.

In the earlier blogs, I mentioned three concerns:

1. Had the collapse in trade and travel during spring 2020 so reduced user fees that Department of Homeland Security Bureau of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) had to furlough Agriculture Quarantine Inspectors? AQI inspections provide important incentives for importers to follow U.S. and international rules to reduce the risk that pests will be present in imports, for example, in wood packaging.

2. The list of imports from China in the first half of 2020 includes $1 billion worth of nursery stock. This is down about 7% from 2019. However, from the perspective of preventing plant diseases and pests, these imports continue to be high risk and are still not adequately addressed by U.S. policy.

3. Other Asian regions are gaining in import share. Thus we can expect to see more pests arriving from countries other than China, like Vietnam.

Cutbacks in Numbers of Inspectors?

CBP staff have told me that they are shifting AQI inspectors from covering incoming passengers – which are still far fewer than before the Pandemic – to inspecting cargo. By doing so, CBP has avoided cutting back on the total number of inspections of imported goods and associated wood packaging.

This is fortunate since Congress has not passed a new Covid-19 financing bill that might have included an increase in the appropriation for DHS CBP. The Continuing Resolution currently in effect funds the government only until December 11. So we have another chance to ask for an increase in appropriated funds for CBP (and APHIS!) for the remainder of Fiscal Year 2021 (which ends on October 1, 2021).

Volumes of Imports from Asia – Especially China

As I reported in the earlier blog, while U.S. imports from China declined significantly in 2019 and early 2020 compared to earlier years, by the summer imports had rebounded — more than doubled (by value) between March and July.

Shifts in U.S. Ports

According to the Journal of Commerce, there is a gradual shift away from the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in the proportion of imported goods entering the country. LA-LB handled 37.7% of the loaded twenty-foot equivalent containers (TEUs) entering the United States in 2018. This fell to 33.5% in July 2020. The initial reason was a decrease in imports from East Asia (including China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) compared to Southeast Asia, Europe, then South America and, finally, South Asia (primarily India).

Other source regions – e.g., the Caribbean, Middle East, Pacific, Africa, and Atlantic – were all below 2% of total numbers of TEU in all three years, and changed minimally over this period.

Another reason for the shift in ports utilized by importers is congestion and delays at North American Pacific coast ports, especially Los Angeles-Long Beach. U.S. imports from Asia moving through LA-LB increased 22% in both September and August from the same months last year – 828,880 TEU in September after 832,210 TEU in August.

Congestion is also a problem at the Canadian ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert – which have actually seen small decreases in numbers of incoming containers.

One result is a small but significant shift to Gulf Coast ports, which have become more accessible through the widening of the Panama Canal in 2016. Before the Canal was widened, these ports handled less than 3% of total US imports from Asia. In the first nine months of 2020, US Gulf ports handled 608,387 TEU from Asia – or 5.2% of total US imports from Asia. This was a 5% increase from the same period last year.

These ports, stretching from Houston to Tampa, benefit from easy and relatively cheap rail transport to inland U.S. and even Canadian cities. Another factor is the heavy presence of Walmart – which has major distribution centers in Mobile and Houston.

The Gulf coast ports are expected to expand their importance as gateways for Asian imports as ocean carriers add more capacity between the two regions and ports upgrade and expand. New Orleans and Houston plan major expansions. Port Tampa Bay notes its proximity to markets around the Southeast. Already, import volumes into Tampa during the first nine months of 2020 were nearly double the prior year’s level. Tampa hopes to double its capacity over the next five years.

U.S. imports from Asia in October were 22.6% higher than a year ago. Imports through the East and Gulf coast ports jumped 14.6% and 48.4% from September 2020. Houston and Baltimore saw the greatest increases since September. There were also shifts in Pacific ports. Still, the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex handled 49% of total US imports from Asia in October 2020.

Pest Risks to the Gulf Coast from Southeast Asia

Rising volumes of imports into the Gulf Coast present new opportunities for non-native insects and pathogens. The warm, wet climate of the region might be far more suitable to some insects and pathogens from tropical and subtropical Asia than the dry climate of southern California (except for areas that are irrigated artificially, such as golf courses, parks, and plant nurseries!).

redbay grove killed by laurel wilt; Photo by Scott Cameron

Already, the redbay ambrosia beetle and its associated pathogenic fungus has decimated native redbay and swamp bay trees and now threatens sassafras (see write-up under the “invasive species” tab here.)

Another Southeast Asian ambrosia beetle – the polyphagous shot hole borer with its associated pathogenic fungus – might also find the Gulf Coast states more inviting than southern California. In California, it is causing the greatest damage to trees that are artificially irrigated. Numerous tree species native to or grown in the Gulf states are known hosts, e.g., box elder, sweetgum, and southern magnolia. (PSHB is described under the “invasive species” tab here.) Both ambrosia beetles apparently were introduced via wood packaging material.

Southeast Asia is also the place of origin of other pathogens which – in this case – would more probably be introduced on imported plants rather than wood. These include the numerous species of Phytophthora recently detected in Vietnam.

As this region receives more goods from Asia, and as those goods arrive more rapidly so more likely to arrive alive, it is imperative that all stakeholders increase their vigilance to detect new invaders. And that they join others pressing for improved policies aimed at preventing introductions.

Posted by Faith Campbell

Projection: Alien Species Introductions Will Keep Going Up! Especially Arthropods!

In 2017 I blogged about a study by Hanno Seebens and 44 coauthors that showed that the rate of new introductions of alien species has risen rapidly since about 1800 – and showed no sign of slowing down (a reference to the full article is at the end of this blog). Here’s a brief recap, followed by a 2020 update by Seebens and colleagues.

In 2017, Seebens et al. analyzed a database covering 45,813 first records of 16,926 alien species established in 282 distinct geographic regions. The year with the highest number of reported new detections was 1996 – 585, or an average of more than 1.5 sightings per day.

The authors found that the adoption of national and international biosecurity measures during the 20th Century had slowed introductions – but not sufficiently. Numbers of reported new introductions of fish and mammals had decreased since the early 1950s. However, first recorded introductions of vascular plant species remained high, and introductions of birds and reptiles also continued to rise, largely as pets in countries with strengthening economies.

For taxa introduced primarily accidentally on transport vectors or as contaminants of commodities (e.g., algae, insects, crustaceans, molluscs and other invertebrates), they found a strong correlation between their spread and the market value of goods imported into the region of interest – existing biosecurity regimes had not slowed down the accumulation of these alien taxa.

As a consequence, the authors expected that the numbers of new alien species would continue to increase.

As you are aware, since 2015 I have posted 15 blogs about the continued detections of tree pests in wood packaging, which remains one of the major pathways despite the international regulation ISPM#15. I have found it harder to track insect and pathogen introductions on imported plants, but it surely continues apace.

2020 Study Projects Continuing Rise in Introductions, Especially Arthropods

Hanno Seebens and a smaller set of coauthors (see full reference at the end of this blog) have now produced an estimate of probable introduction rates in the future. They looked at taxon–continent combinations for seven major taxonomic groups and eight continents (excluding Antarctica).

They found an overall increase in established alien species between 2005 and 2050 of 36%.

The study predicted that by the mid-21st Century, there will be distinct increases in alien species numbers, particularly for Europe, but also for Temperate Asia and North America, and for invertebrates in all regions. Europe ranked highest in absolute numbers of new alien species (~2,543; a 64% increase). Temperate Asia was projected to receive about 1,597 species (a 50% increase); North America about 1,484 (a 23% increase); South America about 1,391 (a 49% increase); and the Pacific Islands about 132. Only Australasia could expect a slower rise in introductions. The predicted trajectories of alien species numbers were surprisingly similar for mainland and island regions across taxonomic groups.

Invertebrates showed the highest relative increases. Rates of new detections of alien species were projected to accelerate for arthropods other than crustaceans worldwide, especially for North America (!). The study also projected higher relative increases for aquatic vascular plants and terrestrial insects

All drivers of introduction and invasion are predicted to intensify in the future. This is despite adoption of increasing numbers of countermeasures in recent decades. Most countries’ capacity to proactively counter the rising tide of invasive species is still poor. Furthermore, the principal drivers – intensification of trade and transport, land-use change, and access to new source pools – is expected to continue operating as now – “business as usual”.

spotted lanternfly Holly Ragusa, Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture

Current Status of “New” Detections

Seebens et al. (2020) relied on the Alien Species First Records Database for first detection records up to 2005. More than half (54%) of the first-detection records in the database are vascular plants. Arthropods other than crustaceans made up 28% of the total, birds 6%, fishes 4%, mammals 3%, molluscs 2%, and crustaceans 2%. The 2020 study confirmed the earlier finding that the observed first-record rates of mammals changed at around 1950 from an increasing to a decreasing trend. Finally, the total numbers of non-native species in the Database is much lower in aquatic habitats. (The authors do not discuss whether this reflects actual introductions or gaps in reporting.)

In the database, Europe recorded 38% of all first records, North America 16%, Australasia 15%, South America 9%, Temperate Asia 9%, Africa 6%, Pacific Islands 5% and Tropical Asia 2%.

A comparison to the immediate past (1960-2005) showed that the rates of emerging non-native species were projected to accelerate during 2005-2050, especially for arthropods. As I noted above, North America is predicted to have high increases in absolute numbers. Increases are also predicted for birds. Declines are predicted for mammals and fishes.

Asian giant hornet; photo from University of Florida Department of Entomology

Projected increases for Australasia were consistently lower than in the past.

Caveats:

1) The authors assumed that past patterns of alien species accumulation will continue in the future. They did not attempt to predict efforts to strengthen biosecurity regulations and mitigation strategies.

2) Projections were calculated in the absence of data on many underlying drivers for the historic periods and some taxonomic groups. However, observed trends of newly-detected alien species numbers during the 20th century were surprisingly stable despite distinct political and socio-economic changes.

Seebens and colleagues conclude that implementation of targeted biosecurity efforts can reduce the numbers of new alien species becoming established. However, a significant decrease in rates of alien species numbers on a large scale can only be achieved by a coordinated effort that crosses political borders.

SOURCES

Seebens et al. 2017. No saturation in the accumulation of alien species worldwide available (free access!) at https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14435

Seebens, H., S. Bacher, T.M. Blackburn, C. Capinha, W. Dawson, S. Dullinger, P. Genovesi, P.E. Hulme, M. van Kleunen, I. Kühn, J.M. Jeschke, B. Lenzner, A.M. Liebhold, Z. Pattison, J. Perg, P. Pyšek, M. Winter, F. Essl. 2020. Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050. Global Change Biology. 2020;00:1 -13 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15333

Posted by Faith Campbell

Ash Mortality Accelerates – Population Regeneration Will Not Reverse Collapse

dead ash along Accotink Creek, Fairfax County, Virginia photo by F.T. Campbell

As we all know, the emerald ash borer (EAB) has killed millions of ash trees in its invaded range across eastern North America. However, field studies have detected robust regeneration of ash seedlings and saplings in various invaded areas. Ward et al. 2021 (full citation at end of blog) set out to determine whether this regeneration will result in recovery of mature ashes that can perform their ecological role. They conclude that it will not. Instead, they say, the EAB invasion will probably alter successional patterns and composition of large areas of naturally regenerating forests, causing a cascade of ecological impacts in ash-containing ecosystems

Ward and colleagues used USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA data) to quantify ash recruitment and regeneration across the entire eastern United States. Theirs is the first study to evaluate trends across the region, rather than specific locations or stands. They related the FIA recruitment data to EAB spread, as measured by USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service’ (APHIS) record of the first EAB detection in each county.

FIA inventories in 2002-2007 and 2013-2018 show large numbers of ash seedlings and saplings in counties invaded in the first wave of invasion, 2002–2006. These areas had higher densities of both seedlings and saplings than plots in other counties. The earliest-invaded counties were in areas that had extraordinarily high densities of ash before the EAB invasion, so the numbers of seedlings and saplings probably reflected that abundant seed source.

However, by the 2013-2018 inventory ash trees in the smallest overstory class (12.7 cm dbh) were dying at faster rates than they were recruited from seedlings or saplings in all 362 counties recorded by APHIS as EAB-infested before 2013. Ward and colleagues found these negative population trajectories on plots that have been invaded for more than about 10 years. This trend suggests that ash will continue to decline in abundance and may become functionally extinct across the invaded range.

Some U.S. Forest Service biologists are more optimistic about ash recovery in response to biocontrol of the EAB. See their podcast here.

In the risk of functional extinction, ash trees are unfortunately not unique. The authors note similar impacts from the invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid and beech bark disease.

Data Reveal History of Invasion (spread)

Ward and colleagues focused on the risk of mortality for young ashes as they developed from seedlings to saplings, and, eventually, to overstory trees. The youngest “overstory” trees are 12.7 to 17 cm dbh. FIA data show that even the largest trees in this class are 3 cm smaller than trees that produce seeds.

Mortality was initially uniformly low – less than 2.1% — as measured by the first FIA inventory (2002–2007). This is not surprising because EAB was detected only in 2002, and then in only few counties. (EAB had probably been present for a decade before it was detected.)

By the 2013-2018 FIA inventory, mortality had quadrupled to 8–11% in counties invaded during the 2002–2006 period. In the counties invaded during the 2007–2012 period, morality also rose to 3-5%. Both measurements included all diameter classes. Annual mortality rates in the FIA 2013-2018 inventory were still highest for the counties invaded during 2002–2006 except for the largest trees (those greater than 40 cm dbh). By the time of the 2013-2018 FIA survey, overstory ash densities near the epicenter had since declined substantially. They had been nearly eliminated in some counties in southeastern Michigan. There were still sufficient numbers of smaller trees in the region to exhibit an elevated mortality rate – more than 10% per year in several counties in Michigan, Indian, and Ohio. By contrast, in the most recently invaded areas – those counties recorded by APHIS as infested after 2013 – there was very little change in ash densities compared to the 2002-2007 period. This is hardly surprising since it takes years for mortality to reach levels observable by the FIA process.

dead ash on edge of Pohick Bay, Fairfax County, Virginia photo by F.T. Campbell

Considering trees just entering the overstory category (those with diameters of 12.7 cm dbh), annual mortality increased substantially across the region. Between the first FIA inventory (conducted in 2002-2007) and the second inventory (conducted in 2013-2018), their average annual mortality rose more than four-fold, from 0.08 trees per ha to 0.37 trees per ha. By 2013-2018, recruitment in the 2002–2006 invasion cohort was about 50% less than tree mortality levels; recruitment and mortality were about equivalent for the counties invaded in the 2007–2012 period. Recruitment was [still] significantly higher than mortality for the counties recorded as invaded in 2013–2018. However, Ward and colleagues expect mortality rates of this cohort to accelerate over the next five to 10 years – even in areas with lower ash densities.

Ward and colleagues note that many of the young ash trees were dying before they could reach reproductive age – which they estimated to be about 20 years with a dbh of about 20 cm.

As the invasion progresses and hosts are depleted, mortality rates could slow, but, for ash to persist, it is critical that sufficient numbers of trees reach reproductive age before succumbing to residual EAB populations.

Other factors that might influence ash include competition with trees in other genera. The biocontrol agents now becoming established in young ash forests might increase the likelihood of ash persistence. Still, seed production and seedling survival will need to be frequent and widespread if they are to offset expected mortality. Resilience might also vary depending on individual species’ vulnerability to changes in the climate and to EAB (green and black ash are more vulnerable than white ash).

SOURCE

Ward, S.F., A.M. Liebhold, R.S. Morin, S. Fei. 2021. Population dynamics of ash across the eastern USA following invasion by emerald ash borer. Forest Ecology and Management 479 (2021) 118574

Posted by Faith Campbell

Trade, Pests, Inspections … & China

Recent information raises several troubling/worrisome issues:

1. The overall collapse in trade and travel has severely cut into the collection of user fees. These fees pay for Agriculture Quarantine Inspectors, putting jobs at risk. Their inspections provide important incentives for importers to follow U.S. and international rules to limit pests.

2. The list of imports from China in 2020 includes $1 billion worth of nursery stock. This is down about 7% from 2019. However, from the perspective of preventing plant diseases and pests, these imports continue to be high risk and still not adequately addressed by U.S. policy.

3. Other Asian regions are gaining in import share. Thus we can expect to see more pests arriving from countries other than China, like Vietnam.

Loss of User Fees Could Mean Loss of Inspectors

The collapse of trade and travel has a more troubling result: severe reductions in user fees collected from travelers and importers to fund DHS/Customs and Border Protection Agriculture Quarantine Inspectors. In a recent opinion piece, several former administrators of APHIS warn that current user fee collections are insufficient to sustain inspectors’ employment. A reserve fund will also be depleted this month. APHIS estimates that it will require an appropriation of $630 million to fund these agricultural inspections through the next fiscal year (October 2020 – September 2021).

Agricultural inspectors focus on plant and animal imports – including horticultural stock, seeds, fruits, and vegetables – both in commercial shipments and in passengers’ baggage. They are also called in when CBP inspectors suspect pests are present in wood packaging.

I do not consider inspection to be the most effective strategy to prevent introductions. That is, I think inspections are less effective than regulations requiring treatments and pre-shipment pest-mitigation measures. However, losing inspectors – even temporarily – will undermine detection and enforcement as an incentive for importers to comply with U.S. and international rules. This funding crisis is therefore a serious concern. Please ask your senators and member of Congress to support increasing the appropriation for DHS CBP by $650 million to keep these inspectors on the job.

Imports from Asia Skyrocket

New data show that containerized US import volumes from Asia rocketed 91% between March and August. During the same five-month period a year ago, import volumes rose only 36% — so the 2020 increase is more than double the earlier pace. Numbers of incoming containers from Asia nearly doubled at the ports New York/New Jersey; Los Angeles/Long Beach, California; and Savannah, Georgia. The California ports are reported to be working nearly at capacity. This has resulted in higher handling costs and delays in trucking imports out of the port to their destinations.

Import volumes from Vietnam and India continue outpace the market generally.

Update: Imports from China Continue to Decline Relative to Other Source Regions

In August I posted a blog reporting a significant reduction in imports from China recently – first as a result of new tariffs in 2019, and second, as a result of the global economic crash associated with the Covid-19 virus.

Imports from China decreased by 16% in 2019 compared to 2018, then rose slightly in the first months of 2020. My focus then – and now – is on declining imports of heavy goods — the types of imports most likely to be packaged in wooden crates or on wooden pallets that can transport pests.

Import volumes from China rose later in the year, as the U.S. economy began to rebound. Official data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census shows US imports from China had more than doubled (by value) since March — from $19.8 billion in March to $40.7 billion in July. Still, imports of heavy items and most consumer items – other than computers – have decreased in 2020 compared to 2019.

Included in this list of imports is $1 billion worth of nursery stock – down about 7% from 2019. Nursery stock imports are rarely included in Census reports, so I value this information. Of course, these imports – even ‘though declining – still represent a series plant pest risks. One study showed that imported plants carry a pest risk 12 times higher than wood packaging material (Liebhold et al. 2012; see full reference at end of blog).

rhododendron infected by sudden oak death – photo courtesy of Jennifer Parke

Important Shifts in Sources of U.S. Imports

Data show a broad and years-long decline in the share of U.S. imports that come from China. This decline is best seen in declining volumes of imports arriving at the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Northwest Sea Alliance and another port in the region. Imports arriving at these ports declined 5.3% in May 2019 compared to May 2018. At that time, this decline was blamed on importers having stocked up in advance of threatened US tariffs on goods from China. Bureau of the Census data show a 2% reduction in loaded twenty-foot-long containers (TEUs) entering Long Beach in calendar year to date 2019 compared to calendar year to date 2020 (through August).

Commercial data sources indicate even larger declines. According to the Journal of Commerce, the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handled 37.7% of the loaded TEUs entering the United States in 2018. This fell to 33.5% in July 2020 — a drop of 4.2 percentage points in just 18 months. The author of this article said the reason was a fall in imports from East Asia (including China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) compared to Southeast Asia, Europe, then South America and, finally, South Asia (primarily India). The article provides a table quantifying shifting sources of U.S. imports:

Total US Market Share Imports by Source Region

SOURCE 2018 2019 2020YTD 2018-2020 change

East Asia 61.6% 58% 54.5% -7.1%

Europe 14.9% 15.8% 16.9% +1.9%

Southeast Asia 8.3% 10.5% 11.9% +3.6%

South America 8.2% 10.5% 11.9% +3.6%

South Asia 2.7% 3.1% 3.1% +0.5%

Other source regions – e.g., the Caribbean, Middle East, Pacific, Africa, and Atlantic – were all below 2% of total numbers of TEU in all three years, and changed not at all or minimally over this period.

As I noted in the earlier blog, the pest risk persists. First, imports from China continue, and the most recent data (for the period 2011-2016) indicate significant numbers of shipments continue to be in violation of requirements for wood packaging (APHIS database / pers. comm). Remember, USDA passed up an opportunity to raise the issue of non-compliant wood packaging with Chinese phytosanitary officials.

Plus other regions also are the source of pests. I wrote about the risk from Mexico in the previous blog. The region of Southeast Asia has already been the source of highly damaging pests, e.g., redbay ambrosia beetle and polyphagous shot hole borer.

distribution of laurel wilt, carried by redbay ambrosia beetle

Scientists have also detected numerous known and previously unknown species of the brown alga genus Phytophthora in Vietnam and Taiwan. Of course, this is the genus that includes the pathogens that cause sudden oak death, black ink disease, potato blight, and numerous other plant diseases. APHIS has not accepted my urging to undertake rapid assessments of the vulnerability of North American trees to these newly discovered microbes.

SOURCE

Liebhold, A.M., E.G. Brockerhoff, L.J. Garrett, J.L. Parke, and K.O. Britton. 2012. Live Plant Imports: the Major Pathway for Forest Insect and Pathogen Invasions of the US. www.frontiersinecology.org

Posted by Faith Campbell

Reminder: comment on ALB EA

Reminder: Friday is the deadline for commenting on APHIS’ draft environmental assessment for the Asian longhorned beetle eradication program in South Carolina. Comments should be submitted at https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/APHIS-2020-0086-0001

The draft EA can be downloaded from https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom/federal-register-posts/sa_by_date/sa-2020/alb-draft-ea

The Center for Invasive Species Prevention submitted comments that supported the eradication effort because of the well-documented threat that the ALB poses to the forests of North America. We also supported the preferred alternative in the EA.

However, we found the environmental assessment (EA) to be deficient in several ways:

the EA does not identify the host species present in the program area – not even of the 5,800 trees inspected by the program as of mid-August.
the EA provides no estimate of the proportion of deciduous trees and shrubs in the area that are host species. Conifers dominate the area. This means that any fauna dependent on deciduous trees and shrubs for food and shelter already contend with limited resources. Consequently, while we concur with the EA that any impacts will be localized, they might be exacerbated by the relative rarity of hardwood species in the local area. It is particularly important that the EA address this question since the Programmatic EIS was written under the assumption that forests at risk to the ALB are like those in the Northeast and Midwest, where hardwoods dominate.

Without knowing the proportion of deciduous flora comprised of host species, no one can evaluate the amount of wildlife food that could be removed or treated by pesticides. Some wildlife species are potentially vulnerable, including those that feed on pollen and nectar (i.e., bees and other pollinators) and those that feed on insects and other invertebrates. The latter include two species listed federally as threatened species: the frosted flatwood salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum) and northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis). Also vulnerable are birds, 96% of which feed their young on insects and other invertebrates. I worry about sublethal effects and possible bioaccumulation. Aquatic organisms, especially invertebrates, might also be affected.

The information gaps in the EA highlight weaknesses in the Programmatic EIS, on which it relies. The most important gap is the dearth of pesticide dose/mortality data for terrestrial amphibians. Apparently, EPA has not required such studies before approving pesticides.

Posted by Faith Campbell

APHIS Drops the Ball on China’s Wood Packaging

APHIS has apparently passed up an opportunity to pressure China to clean up its wood packaging – although China ranks among the countries that most often violates ISPM#15 and sends wood packaging infested by quarantine pests. (See the blogs under the category “wood packaging” on this site.)

In May, a large delegation of APHIS employees met (virtually) with an equally large delegation of its Chinese counterpart to negotiate “technical protocols” linked to the Phase 1 trade agreement with China. The focus of the negotiations was on Chinese phytosanitary barriers that block exports of US products to China.

The two countries have now signed technical protocols to allow the United States to export to China a wide range of commodities estimated to be worth between $700 million and $760 million annually when the agreement is fully implemented. These commodities include barley for processing, hay, some fruits (blueberries, avocados, nectarines), almond meal, and chipping potatoes.

Some of the agreements cap years of effort. The example cited is chipping potatoes. Negotiations continue on some other U.S. exports to China, including logs.

An article in APHIS’ online newsletter reports that “On the import side, we are working on the requirements for China’s requested commodities….” Presumably these would be exports to the U.S. The examples listed were all fruits.

I inquired whether wood packaging was part of the negotiation.

Andrea B. Simao, Assistant Deputy Administrator and Director of PPQ’s Phytosanitary Issues Management unit, replied that SWPM was not raised “since there has [sic] not been significant issues.”
Instead, she detailed efforts in the ongoing negotiations to persuade China that U.S. phytosanitary treatments are sufficient to control various pathogens in logs: oak wilt, phosphine on conifers, pinewood nematode.

Apparently the focus was fully on US exports and nobody raised US concerns about the risks of imports from China. This approach fits the Administration’s emphasis on exporting agricultural commodities to China. However, this is not reality. Over the past five years, I have frequently cited USDA’s own data – which demonstrate the likelihood that wood packaging will transport tree-killing pests from China to the U.S.

APHIS PPQ Deputy Administrator Osama El-Lissy & Chinese counterpart Li Jainwei sign agreement (APHIS photo)

Please inform your Member of Congress and Senators (or candidates for House or Senate) about how you feel about this failure of USDA to protect America’s natural resources. We must raise the political heat in order to pressure USDA into placing as high a priority on protecting US natural resources as it does on supporting agricultural exports.

Posted by Faith Campbell

Another Set of Official Data Demonstrates Impact of Non-Native Forest Pests

Ash forest in Michigan killed by emerald ash borer
photo by Nate Siegert

As I reported in December, the USDA Forest Service Forest Health Management program has been issuing reports on the status of pest invasions, based on annual national Insect and Disease Surveys (IDS). This survey is carried out by low-level aerial surveys of statistically valid geographic units. (For a discussion of quadrat establishment, see the Introduction to the 2019 report here.

Here I compare the pest situation as it appeared in two recent years, based on these surveys: 2017 and 2018.

Of course, two years is too short a time to see trends. The second report provides USFS scientists attempt to provide context by analyzing 20 years of data (Chapter 6 of the 2019 report).

These reports are important sources of data on the status of non-native pests in our forests, but I raise several caveats that necessitate our continuing to rely on additional sources, some of which I have cited in previous blogs. I will address these in greater detail below. But in brief, these caveats are:

1) Major pests – both in extent and damage caused – are not adequately included (see below).

2) The survey technique resulted in delays in detecting mortality. It cannot be used as an early detection tool.

3) There is little analysis of the statistics cited.

Why Stakeholders Cannot Rely on These Two Survey Reports Alone

I hope stakeholders, analysts, and decision-makers will utilize the full range of reports and other data to evaluate the presence and impacts of various invasive pests and pathogens. Even the reports’ authors advise decision-makers to use other forest health indicators in addition to this report. It is not the “fault” of the authors that these reports cannot serve all needs. However, we all need to be aware this caveat.

1. Important Pests Not Adequately Included.

Many of the most damaging non-native pests caused extensive damage before these surveys were initiated. These include white pine blister rust, chestnut blight, Dutch elm disease, butternut canker, Port-Orford cedar root disease, European gypsy moth, and balsam woolly adelgid on Fraser fir. [For further discussion, see pest write-ups here and my earlier blogs reviewing 30 years of engagement and survey data from Shenandoah National Park.]

2. Major Damaging Pests Are Poorly Captured by the Survey Method. Morin found that non-native pests had caused a five percent increase in mortality nation-wide – as measured by tree volume. Three of the species suffering the highest rates of this “exacerbated mortality” are redbay, ash, and hemlock. The current studies’ authors concede all three are poorly detected by the survey methods. The aerial survey techniques are ill-suited to detect mortality of tree species that grow scattered throughout a diverse forest. Other seriously damaging pests that are poorly detected by aerial surveys are Dutch elm disease, white pine blister rust, and thousand cankers disease. Again, see the species write-ups here to be reminded about how great the pest’s impact are. Also review my earlier blog reviewing 30 years of my engagement with the issue and survey data from Shenandoah National Park.

dead redbay in woods
photo by F.T. Campbell

Given these caveats above, what do these studies show us?

Areas surveyed.

Since 1999, the annual Insect and Disease Survey (IDS) has covered on average 266,655,000 ha, although the area varied from a maximum of 320,712,000 ha (in 2007) to a minimum of 202,170,000 ha (in 2017), then increased to 211,34,000 ha in 2018. For reasons not clear to me, the proportion of forested area in the lower 48 states surveyed actually declined from 2017 to 2018 – from 55.1% to 46.6%. In Alaska, the 2017 surveys covered about 7.3% of the total forested area but 12.7% of the forested area in 2018. In Hawai`i, the survey covered about 80.1% of the forested area in 2017, but only 69.4% of the State’s total tree canopy area in 2018.

Tree-Killing Insects and Pathogens Found.

The 2017 survey identified 63 mortality-causing agents and complexes that cumulatively affected 3.27 million ha in the lower 48 states – about 1.3% of the total 252 million ha of forested land in these states. Of these agents of tree mortality, 23 were detected killing trees on areas totaling larger than 5,000 ha each.

The 2018 survey identified seven fewer mortality-causing agents – only 56. These agents were detected on about 2.13 million ha across the lower 48 (slightly less than the combined land area of New Jersey and Rhode Island), or about 0.8% of the total forested area. Of the total, 22 agents were detected killing trees on areas totaling larger than 5,000 ha each.

The more recent report does not discuss these declines from the 2017 findings or whether they might be related to the smaller percentages of forested areas covered by the aerial survey in 2018.

In both 2017 and 2018, as well as in the 20-year trend analysis (Chapter 6 of the report published in 2020), overall mortality is greatest in the West due to the impact of several native western bark beetles. Overall mortality rates in other regions was considered low, despite severe impacts of some non-native species.

The 2017 survey found that the emerald ash borer (EAB) was the most widespread single agent, causing measurable tree mortality on 1.42 million ha. In 2018, the area of EAB damage was reduced by 76% — to just 338,000 ha. (Still, the latter figure represented 15.8% of the total area displaying mortality). These figures were probably underestimates – especially in areas outside North Central Region – because EAB is one of the pests poorly detected by the aerial survey technique – at least when ash are growing scattered in a diverse forest ecosystem. Although the USFS report doesn’t say so, this decline probably reflected the collapse of dead ash trees and reduction in numbers of still-alive but vulnerable ash trees as the EAB invasion wave matured.

The reports document a huge increase in mortality attributed to the sudden oak death pathogen between 2017 and 2018. (SOD is the only widespread non-native agent of mortality on the West coast.) The area affected increased nearly seven-fold – from 6,335 ha in the 2017 survey to 42,771 ha in the 2018 survey. This equated to causing mortality on 3.9% of the total Regional mortality area. This finding parallels finding reported by the California Oak Mortality Task Force. Note that SOD-related mortality was not detected by the aerial surveys until 2008 – 13 year or more after scientists working on the ground detected the presence of the then-unknown pathogen in the forests of California.

tanoak killed by Phytophthora ramorum on Big Sur peninsula
photo by Matteo Garbelotto

Another alarming increase detected in 2018 was that of balsam woolly adelgid (BWA) in the Interior West. BWA-caused mortality was evident on 44,000 ha – 8.4% of the total area with mortality. BWA impacts were especially severe in central Idaho. There are several native pests in the same area. (See BWA write-up here.) BWA was first detected in Idaho in 1983 – 35 years earlier.

Geographic Hot Spots

The EAB caused the principal hot spots in the East. In the USFS North Central Region, 91% of the area suffering tree mortality in 2017 was attributed to the EAB. The EAB was also causing mortality across 10,346 ha (16% of the total areas suffering mortality) in the Northeast (especially Connecticut) and more than 5,000 ha in the South (especially Kentucky). (See my December blog for a discussion of the puzzling situation in several Great Plains ecoregions, where mortality was attributed largely to drought rather than either EAB or Dutch elm disease.)

Another mortality agent in the Northeastern Region was the European gypsy moth. In 2018, it was responsible for tree death on 31% of the total 70,000 ha affected area.

Another hot spot was in Hawai`i. In 2017, about 37,000 ha of mortality was detected. By 2018, the dead zone had increased to 46,000 ha – despite a 12% decrease in the area surveyed. In both years, the data collectors officially called the cause unknown. The reports’ authors stated that the probable cause was they rapid ‘ōhi‘a death fungi. (I ask why the surveyors did not state the cause since rapid ‘ōhi‘a death was identified on the Big Island in 2014.)

Other non-native pests that affected more than 5,000 ha in the lower 48 states in 2017 were the BWA outbreak in the Northeast (20,758 ha, primarily in Maine); beech bark disease (12,222 ha, primarily in the North Central Region), and oak wilt (9,573 ha, primarily in the North Central Region and Texas).

In the Southern Region, mortality agents were detected on 1% or less of the forested area in 2017. In 2018, EAB-caused mortality was detected on 9.7% of the total 13,000 ha area experiencing mortality. An earlier gypsy moth outbreak had apparently calmed. I remind you that the report authors have conceded that laurel wilt and hemlock woolly adelgid are poorly detected by the survey technique.

eastern hemlock in Shenandoah National Park (Virgina)

DEFOLIATORS

The 2017 survey detected defoliation caused by 50 agents and complexes across the lower 48. These impacted 2.3 million ha. The 2018 survey identified six more defoliation agents and complexes (56), but they affected a much smaller area – about 1.72 million ha.

Unsurprisingly, the most widespread was the European gypsy moth. The data demonstrated the gypsy moth’s boom/bust cycle. In 2017, gypsy moth impacts were detected on 39% of the total forested area of the lower 48 states (913,000 ha) in 2017. By 2018, the total area affected by the gyspy moth had fallen to 156,000 ha.

In both years, gypsy moth defoliation was particularly severe in the Northeast Region. In 2018, a second non-native species, browntail moth (Euproctis chrysorrhoea) was also causing severe defoliation in the region, primarily in Maine.

In the South, the European gypsy moth affected only 5.8% of the total area of defoliation; native defoliators predominated.

The report does not discuss the relationship between gypsy-moth caused defoliation and mortality. True, there must be repeated defoliations to cause tree mortality.

Other non-native defoliation agents affecting more than 5,000 ha in the lower 48 in 2017 were the larch casebearer (25,891 ha in the North Central Region and another 7,400 ha in the West Coast Region); and winter moth (12,760 ha in the Northeast Region). Is the decline of winter moth in 2018 data related to introduction of a biocontrol agent?

In 2018, the Larch casebearer (Coleophora laricella) continued to be a significant defoliator, affected 3.1% of the North Central Region’s total defoliated area. A new agent, the balsam woolly adelgid (BWA), was detected defoliating firs in the West Coast Region. The affected area was 15,000 ha – 5% of the total affected area Again, there was no discussion of as to whether defoliation precedes mortality. Admittedly, the progression of BWA damage in firs is extremely complicated.

Alaskan forests suffered widespread defoliation, mostly by native species. The survey detected an unknown canker on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides).

Twenty Years of Data: Trends

In addition to reporting on the 2018 survey, the more recent report contains an analysis (in Chapter 6) of data over 20 years. The analysis is intended to be used in analyses required under the Resource Protection Act (RPA). The RPA analysis uses the same set of Insect and Disease Survey data, although it groups them in four rather than five regions.

The authors grouped the annual data into four five-year windows (1996-2001; 2002-2006; 2007–2011; 2012-2016).

An overview comprising all mortality agents across the nation found a major “spurt” in area exposed to mortality-causing agents in 2002-2006. The 14.2 million ha was 4.5 times greater than the 3.1 million ha affected in the preceding 1997-2001 period. This was attributed, in part, to a sampling change. The mortality footprint fell slowly in later periods – to 9.9 million ha in 2007-2011 and 6.9 million ha in 2012-2016. Other than during the 2002-2006 period, mortality was relatively low in the Northern Region – despite EAB – especially when compared to high mortality in the Rocky Mountain and Pacific Coast Regions attributed to bark beetles.

The mortality area attributed to pathogens was also highest in 2002-2006. This was due to three pests: a root diseases-bark beetle complex killing subalpine fir, oak wilt, and beech bark disease.

Very little disease mortality was reported in the South during any of the five-year periods – an alarming failure given damage to redbay by laurel wilt. The lapse is more confusing because past IDS reports have listed redbay as heavily damaged (see USDA FS FHTET 2014).

The Pacific states saw a modest increase over time. The sudden oak death infestation was first detected by the IDS survey in 2008 – approximately 13years after it was detected on the ground.

Over the 20 years, non-native species caused mortality on an average of 500,000 ha in each five-year period except 2002-2006 (described above). The proportion of the total mortality footprint associated with non-native species was14.8% in 1997-2001, 34.4% in 2002-2006, 3.6% in 2007-2011 & 7.4% in 2012-2016.

Only in the Northern Region was a large proportion of the mortality footprint consistently attributed to non-native species – 35.1% in 1997-2011 to 98.5% in 2002-2006. The suite of species changed over time. In the first period (1997-2001), the principal species were beech bark disease, European gypsy moth, oak wilt, and hemlock woolly adelgid. During two periods – 2002-2006 and 2007-2011 – those present earlier were joined by BWA, EAB, and Dutch elm disease. By the final period – 2012-2016 – the principal agents were EAB and red pine scale.

beech bark disease
Photo by Linda Haugen
courtesy of Bugwood

Non-native mortality agents detected in the South included hemlock woolly agelgid and oak wilt. HWA affected 71.8% of the affected area in 2006 – 2012, 21.9% in 2012-2016. EAB was first detected by the aerial survey in 2016.

In the two western regions, non-native agents had low footprints. The highest impacts were associated with BWA and white pine blister rust in the Rocky Mountain Region, Port-Orford cedar root disease and SOD in the Pacific Region, with the addition of BWA in some years and ROD in 2015 and 2016.

(All these pests are described here.)

Generally, woodborers have caused the highest mortality levels, seconded by pathogens. Only in the 2002-2006 period did another insect feeding guild exceed 10% of total mortality area – when BWA (a sap feeder) reached 18.7% of detected mortality – on balsam fir in Maine.

In the Western regions, the disease white pine blister rust was second to the subalpine fir mortality complex. Even this ranking fails to reflect widespread mortality of lower-elevation five-needle pines in previous decades.

In the Northern Region, a disease – beech bark disease – was most important in the first five-year period. It was replaced by a wood-boring beetle – EAB. I have noted the importance of the BWA (a sap-feeder) infestation during 2002-2006.

In the Southern Region, native bark beetles usually predominated. There were outbreaks of the foliage-feeding European gypsy moth in2007-2011 and hemlock woolly adelgid (sap-feeder) in 2012-2016.

The authors of the report note that the South might be underrepresented for several reasons – but without mentioning the severe impacts on the understory trees redbay and more recently sassafras.

SOURCES

Bailey, R.G.. 1995. Descriptions of the ecoregions of the United States. 2d ed. Miscellaneous Publication No. 1391. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. 108 p.

Fei, S., R.S. Morin, C.M. Oswalt, and A.M. 2019. Biomass losses resulting from insect and disease invasions in United States forests

Guo, Q., S. Feib, K.M. Potter, A.M. Liebhold, and J. Wenf. 2019. Tree diversity regulates forest pest invasion. PNAS. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1821039116

Morin, R.S., K.W. Gottschalk, M.E. Ostry, A.M. Liebhold. 2018. Regional patterns of declining butternut (Juglans cinerea L.) suggest site characteristics for restoration. Ecology and Evolution.2018;8:546-559

Morin, R. A. Liebhold, S. Pugh, and S. Fie. 2019. Current Status of Hosts and Future Risk of EAB Across the Range of Ash: Online Tools for Broad-Scale Impact Assessment. Presentation at the 81^st Northeastern Forest Pest Council, West Chester, PA, March 14, 2019

Potter, K.M., B.S. Crane, W.W. Hargrove. 2017. A US national prioritization framework for tree species vulnerability to climate change. New Forests (2017) 48:275–300 DOI 10.1007/s11056-017-9569-5

Potter, K.M., M.E. Escanferla, R.M. Jetton, and G. Man. 2019a. Important Insect and Disease Threats to United States Tree Species and Geographic Patterns of Their Potential Impacts. Forests. 2019 10 304.

Potter, K.M., M.E. Escanferla, R.M. Jetton, G. Man, and B.S. Crane. 2019b. Prioritizing the conservation needs of United States tree species: Evaluating vulnerability to forest insect and disease threats. Global Ecology and Conservation. (2019)

USDA Forest Service. Forest Health Monitoring: National Status, Trends, and Analysis 2018. General Technical Report SRS-239. June 2019. Editors Kevin M. Potter Barbara L. Conkling

USDA Forest Service. Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team. 2014. 2013-2027 National Insect and Disease Forest Risk Assessment. FHTET-14-01

Posted by Faith Campbell

New Study of Why People Move Firewood – and Its Relation to EAB Deregulation

We know that people moving firewood long distances is cause for great concern because of the likelihood that tree-killing pests will be transported to new and previously uninfested locations. This concern has been heightened by the USDA APHIS proposal to deregulate the emerald ash borer (EAB). As the principal federal “quarantine pest” transported by firewood, the EAB provides the legal foundation for most federal and state firewood regulations. (Of course, the EAB regulations also govern other articles that could transport wood-boring pests). (See earlier blogs here and here.)

Most forest pest professionals agree that the greatest risks are associated with individuals who transport firewood for recreational camping or summer homes. These people have proven to be the most difficult to regulate and the most likely to not see – or to ignore – messages intended to discourage them from moving firewood. The Nature Conservancy manages the “Don’t Move Firewood” program. It has done polling on messages and impact and concludes that the percentage of U.S. voters who have heard a “don’t move firewood” message remains steady and that those who have heard that message are less likely to transport firewood, especially over distances greater than 50 miles. More details are here

A recently published study by several academics and one forest service scientist reinforces The Conservancy’s earlier conclusion about the importance of outreach efforts as an essential component of programs intended to manage wood-boring pests. On the other hand, the new study points to additional nuances in crafting messages that will be effective in changing people’s behavior.

Findings

Daigle et al. 2018 (see full citation at the end of the blog) surveyed 272 people who were camping in public (state) or private campgrounds in three New England states in 2013 – four years after each of those states adopted regulations prohibiting out-of-state firewood and began their outreach efforts. Some campers apparently feel a strong connection to the place they are visiting, as shown by the fact that 84% of the 79 campers at private campgrounds had spent two or more nights camping in the same state in the previous year. That emotional connection might provide a motivation that could be activated to persuade those campers to stop transporting firewood (see below).

The authors found that slightly more than 25% of the 272 respondents reported that they often or always brought firewood from home for camping. More discouraging is that they found that people might not comply even when informed about the risks. Instead, compliance depended largely on the individual’s motivation and commitment level rather than knowledge. Worse yet, campers categorized as “highly involved” in the forest pest issue were just as likely to transport firewood from home as were others. Apparently, these non-compliant campers did not fully “connect the dots” between their concerns about forest health and their own actions. See below for Daigle et al.’s suggestions for ways to help people make those connections.

To understand the role of motivation, Daigle et al. tried to assess the strength of each camper’s beliefs about the relationship between tree-killing pests and the transport of firewood by recreational campers.

Overall, 25% of respondents were very highly involved with tree pest issues; another 22% were highly involved. Respondents’ perception of the relationship between damaging tree pests and transport of firewood differed significantly based on their levels of involvement. Respondents with a low level of involvement were less likely to agree with three statements (listed below) that firewood-associated pests pose a serious threat. Campers with very high levels of involvement strongly disagreed with three other statements that either downplayed the threat or portrayed the respondent’s compliance as “useless” as long as others continue to transport firewood.

Perception questions against which respondents’ agreement or disagreement was measured:

“There is not much one individual can do about invasive pests brought in by firewood”
“I don’t think invasive pests brought in by firewood are very important.”
“The threat of invasive pests brought in by firewood is serious.”
“As long as other people continue to bring firewood from home, my efforts to prevent invasive pests are useless.”
“The invasive forest pest risk from firewood is exaggerated.”
“In the long run, things will balance out with invasive pests.”

Rationale

Respondents’ most frequent explanations for why they take firewood from home when they go camping were cost, quality, and convenience. The most frequently cited reason for not transporting firewood was that the respondent knew that it was not allowed.

Level of pest awareness:

While nearly all respondents (92%) had heard something about non-native pests killing trees, but 57% could not recall the name of a specific pest in the absence of a prompt. When asked about the emerald ash borer and Asian longhorned beetle, more respondents had heard about the ALB (77% v. 52%). Most said the principal source of information was a state agency.

Suggested Actions

Daigle et al. conclude that authorities need to increase citizens’ exposure to outreach materials in order to activate concern and bring about desired actions to curtail risk of pests in firewood.

One clear need is to counter many campers’ belief that their wood is safe so it is okay to transport it regardless of the regulations. Often they based that belief on the fact that their home is not in a designated quarantine zone. Daigle et al. suggested that educational material should try to counter this belief by emphasizing the time lag between a pest’s establishment and its detection.

To help “connect the dots” between campers’ concerns about forest health and the implications of their actions (transporting firewood), survey respondents suggested using more visuals showing the destruction caused by the invasive forest pests, especially in areas they care about – close to home or favorite recreation areas. Daigle et al. thought such pictures would “help the campers with high involvement to trigger activation of attitudes with the association of forest pests and firewood transport.”

Other suggestions for strengthening outreach were to ensure that the message

Is novel – that it does not simply reiterate a camper’s initial belief system.
Produces agreement by the recipient without generating counterarguments.
Is relevant to the audience’s concerns.

They also suggested that campgrounds (public and private) help motivate campers to leave firewood at home by coordinating with local firewood vendors to provide competitively priced firewood at the campground or by including the cost of providing some firewood in the camping fee.

Daigle et al. made two other suggestions that call for stronger actions.

First, they suggested that outreach programs incorporate incentives or rewards to engage people who don’t have a high level of involvement in forest health issues.

Second, they suggested that authorities reinforce the educational message by using “more direct” actions, such as

confiscating illegally transported firewood at check stations,
issuing warnings about such actions, or
administering fines for moving non-compliant firewood.

The authors suggest that state agencies should consider taking these actions – but I see no reason why federal agencies should not also.

EAB; David Cappaert

Conclusions re APHIS’ Proposal to Deregulate EAB

Daigle et al. conclude that outreach efforts aimed at curtailing movement of firewood need to be continued. They are a critical component of overall management programs targetting non-native tree-killing pests – programs developed through decades of research and trials. The motive is clear: more effectively delaying these pests’ spread provides large benefits to municipalities and homeowners.

These are the same points made by many who opposed APHIS’ proposal to deregulate the emerald ash borer.

In its comments to APHIS, The Nature Conservancy noted that the domestic EAB quarantine had been effective in limiting spread of the pest through two of the most important pathways – firewood and nursery stock. The resulting slower spread had protected three-quarters of the ash range in the United States and bought time to develop mitigation measures.

Further, eliminating the federal quarantine would not only unleash this pathway for long-range movement of EAB but undermine the many federal, state, regional, tribal, private, and non-profit partners’ efforts to curtail movement of all invasive forest pests in firewood.

Many other commenters, including several state agencies, the National Association of State Foresters and Southern Group of State Foresters called for APHIS to continue leading national efforts to curtail spread of EAB and other pests through careless movement of infested firewood. The Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation and NASF specifically urged that APHIS reinstate the National Firewood Task Force (which APHIS led in 2009-2010).

The Don’t Move Firewood program has a more informal blog on this topic, available here.

Source

Daigle, J.J., C.L. Straub, J.E. Leahy, S.M.De Urioste-Stone, D.J. Ranco, N.W. Siegert. How Campers’ Beliefs about Forest Pests Affect Firewood Transport Behavior An Application of Involvement Theory. Forest Science XX(XX):1-10 https://academic.oup.com/forestscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/forsci/fxy056/5232804