The surge in US imports from Asia that began in the second half of 2020 continued through 2021 and into January 2022. As of September 2021, import volumes from Asia averaged almost 20% higher than the historical monthly average for every month of 2021 (Mongelluzzo, October 13, 2021). The surge continued into 2022. In January 2022, US containerized imports from Asia hit the highest monthly total ever recorded — 1.7 million TEU. This was a 14.6% increase over December 2021 – and a 4.5% increase from a year earlier (January 2021). [Mongelluzzo Feb 23]
The 2022 increase in import volumes was on top of the record-breaking levels seen in 2021. For example, average monthly import volumes during 2021 at the principal ports for receipt of goods from Asia — Los Angeles-Long Beach — were 23% over the 2019 average (Mongeluzzo April 2021).
Increases in volume from December 2021 occurred at ports across the country. Pacific coast ports saw increases – 25.8% at the LA/LB complex (which handles ~50% of US imports from Asia); 39.1% at Northwest Seaport Alliance (Seattle and Tacoma); 19.7% at Oakland. So did ports in the Southeast – 12.7% in Savannah and 14.1% in Charleston. However, New York/New Jersey saw a decrease of 2.2% and Norfolk saw a decrease of 10.6%. [Mongelluzzo Feb 23] New York had seen a steep increase in mid-2021 (Angell Dec. 22, 2021), but apparently this did not hold up through the year.
The southern California ports report that ships leaving China in early March will – as expected – increase import volumes before the end of the month. Long Beach projected that numbers of arriving shipping containers will rise 34% in the week beginning March 20, compared with the week of March 7; Los Angeles projected an increase of 63% [Mongelluzzo March 10].
Volumes Will Probably Continue to Rise Along the Gulf
Containerized imports from Asia through US Gulf ports had risen 27.2% to 1.14 million TEU in 2021. At the port of Mobile, specifically, imports from Asia last year rose 25% from 2020 to 230,347 TEU in 2021. Imports from Asia through Houston jumped 34 % to 807,376 TEU in 2021 [Mongelluzzo Feb 2 2022]
Increasing manufacturing and distribution industries in the Gulf region are probably an important factor in rising import volumes there. Mongelluzzo Feb 2 2022 notes the presence of a Hyundai factory in Alabama, a Tesla factory and Amazon fulfillment center near Austin, as well as several retail chains’ distribution centers near Houston. Many of these facilities opened in 2021.
Import volumes entering via Gulf and Southeastern ports are expected to continue growing in coming months and years. Several carriers have announced new direct Asia-to-US-east coast transport services. These include South Korea’s HMM (to Houston); CMA CGM; and Maersk (Vietnam and China to Houston and Norfolk; China and Indonesia to Charleston and Newark)
Those who follow shipping expect import volumes to drop in February because many factories in Asia were closed for two weeks or more for the Lunar New Year holidays, which began on Febrary 1. Imports should surge again in March. [Mongelluzzo Feb 23]
The Risk
Remember, Asia is the origin of many of the most damaging forest pests. These include Asian longhorned beetle, emerald ash borer, redbay ambrosia beetle, phytophagous and Kuroshia shot hole borers (for profiles of each visit here). Indeed, 15 of 16 non-native bark beetles in the Xyleborini (a tribe of ambrosia beetles) detected in the United States since 2000 are from Asia (Bob Rabaglia, USFS Forest Health Protection, presentation at IUFRO meeting in Prague, September 2021).
It seems to me that the beetles native to southeast Asia, e.g., the phytophagous and Kuroshio shot hole borers, are likely to find the climate along the Gulf of Mexico to their liking. Indeed, the redbay ambrosia beetle profile already has!
Li et al. (2021) assessed fungi associated with Eurasian bark and ambrosia beetles and their potential to impact North American trees. They assessed 111 fungal associates of 55 beetle species. They found that none was “highly virulent” on four important pines or oaks of the Southeast. However, I note two caveats. First, they tested only four host species – two pines (Pinus taeda and P. elliottii var. elliottii) and two oaks (Quercus shumardii and Q. virginiana). They did not test against the many other tree species that comprise important components of forests of the region. Second, their bar for concern was extremely high: to qualify as “highly virulent,” the pathogens had to be as damaging as laurel wilt disease or Dutch elm disease! Both have had extremely damaging impacts on their hosts across North America.
Updated Haack Analysis
As has been documented repeatedly (e.g., my blogs), the current approach to curtailing pest introductions associated with wood packaging is not sufficiently effective. Customs officials continue to detect live quarantine pests in wood packaging as it enters the country. However, the exact level of this threat is unclear since the only assessment was based on data from 2009 (Haack et al., 2014). I eagerly await the results of Bob Haack’s updated analysis, which I hope will be published by mid-year.
SOURCES
Angell, M. NY-NJ vessel backlog creeps back up amid bigger ship calls. Journal of Commerce. Dec. 22, 2021 https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/ny-nj-vessel-backlog-creeps-back-amid-bigger-ship-calls_20211222.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%2012/23/21%20SUBSCRIBER%20%28Copy%29_PC00000_e-production_E-122936_KB_1223_0617
Angell, M. Maersk to debut new Houston, Norfolk trans-Pac service in March. Journal of Commerce. Feb. 10, 2022 https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/maersk-line/maersk-debut-new-houston-norfolk-trans-pac-service-march_20220210.html?utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Ports%202%2F16%2F22%20_PC00000_e-production_E-127385_TF_0216_0900&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua
Haack, R.A., K.O. Britton, E.G. Brockerhoff, J.F. Cavey, L.J. Garrett. 2014. Effectiveness of the International Phytosanitary Standard ISPM No. 15 on Reducing Wood Borer Infestation Rates in Wood Packaging Material Entering the United States. PLoS ONE 9(5): e96611. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0096611
Li, Y., C. Bateman, J. Skelton, B. Wang, A. Black, Y-T. Huang, A. Gonzalez, M.A. Jusino, Z.J. Nolen, S. Freeman, Z. Mendel, C-Y. Chen, H-F. Li, M. Kolařík, M. Knížek, J-H. Park, W. Sittichaya, P. H. Thai, S. Ito, M. Torii, L. Gao, A.J. Johnson, M. Lu, J. Sun, Z. Zhang, D.C. Adams, J. Hulcr. 2021. Pre-invasion assessment of exotic bark beetle-vectored fungi to detect tree-killing pathogens. Phytopathology. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-01-21-0041-R
Mongeluzzo, B. Additional port capacity alone can’t solve congestion issues: LA-LB. Journal of Commerce. April 2021 https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/additional-port-capacity-alone-can%E2%80%99t-solve-congestion-issues-la-lb_20210407.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%204%2F8%2F21_PC00000_e-production_E-95420_KB_0408_0837
Mongelluzzo, B. September imports show no relief for stressed US ports. Journal of Commerce. Oct. 12, 2021. https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/september-imports-show-no-relief-stressed-us-ports_20211013.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%2010%2F14%2F21_PC00000_e-production_E-116084_KB_1014_0617
Mongelluzzo, B. Gulf Coast import growth propels regional warehousing boom. Journal of Commerce. Feb. 2, 2022. https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/port-mobile/gulf-coast-import-growth-propels-regional-warehousing-boom_20220202.html?utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Ports%202%2F9%2F22%20%20_PC00000_e-production_E-126647_TF_0209_0900&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua
Mongelluzzo, B. Asian imports to US surged to new record in January. Journal of Commerce. Feb 23, 2022
Mongelluzzo, B. Coming LA-LB cargo surge to rebuild vessel backlog, say terminals. Journal of Commerce. March 10, 2022. https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/coming-la-lb-cargo-surge-rebuild-vessel-backlog-say-terminals_20220310.html?utm_source=Eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL_JOC%20Daily%203/11/22%20NONSUBSCRIBER_PC015255_e-production_E-130350_KB_0311_0617