More scientists are examining the importance of American forests in providing ecosystem services – and the threat to those values raised by non-native pests and other factors. This is a broader perspective than used in the past – and it includes climate change. also here
Jeannine Cavender-Bareu and colleagues (full citation at the end of this blog) found that changes in the abundance and composition of US trees have the potential to undermine the benefits and societal values derived from those forests now. They examined threats associated with increasing invasive pests and pathogens, greater frequency of major fires, and climate change. Together, these constitute a complex set of global change drivers – and the impact of each is accelerating.
The authors tried to measure the impact of these forces on forests’ ability to provide five key ecosystem services. Two are “regulating” services—regulation of climate and air quality. The other three are “provisioning” services—production of wood products, food crops, and Christmas trees.
Unfortunately, they could not find sufficient data to analyze five other ecosystem services, which are equally or more important. They include both regulatory and provisioning services: water management, such as erosion control, flood and storm surge regulation; urban heat island regulation and energy savings; providing habitats for species (biodiversity); recreation; or ornamental, spiritual, and aesthetic values.
Cavender-Bareu and colleagues concluded that the value of the five analyzed services provided by 400 tree species across the contiguous United States over the years 2010-2012 is $114 billion per year. The non-market “regulatory” values far exceeds their current commercial value.
- Climate regulation via carbon storage in tree biomass provides 51% of this net annual value;
- Human health improvements linked to trees’ filtering of air pollution provide an additional 37% of the annual net value.
- Provisioning services, such as wood products, fruit and nut crops, and Christmas trees, provide only 12% of the net annual value. (By my calculation, wood products constituate almost three-quarters of this sum.)
The authors then tried to identify which tree lineages, e.g., taxonomic families, genera, or species, provide the greatest proportion of each of these ecosystem services. They also identified threats to these lineages. Together, this knowledge allows managers to target forestry management practices to the specific lineages within a landscape where ecosystem service are most at risk.
Table 1 in the article ranks 10 tree genera by the aggregate net value they provide: pine, oak, maple, Douglas-fir, hemlock, cherry/almond, spruce, hickories, yellow or tulip poplar, and ash. The table also provides separate dollar values for each of the five benefits.
Two lineages—pines and oaks — provide 42% of the value of these services (annually, pines = $25.4 billion; oaks = $22.3 billion). They note that these high values result from the large number of pine and oak species occupying diverse ecological niches. Oaks have the highest annual values for climate moderation or carbon storage ($10.7 billion) and air quality regulation ($11 billion). Oaks’ air quality regulation value reflects three factors: the genus’ abundance, the trees’ size, and the large numbers planted in cities and suburbs, that is, near human populations affected by pollution. Other than this issue of location, closely related tree species tend to have similar air quality regulation values.
Many lineages provide wood products, but the amounts vary widely among related species. Pines dominate annual net revenues from wood products at $7.4 billion, due in part to their high volume and higher than average price. The most valuable species in the context of this study’s set of ecosystem services are loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii).
Edible fruits are concentrated in two lineages — family Rosaceae, especially genera Prunus and Malus; and family Rutaceae, genus Citrus. This category demonstrates the impact of disease: annual net returns from citrus products were actually negative during the 2010 – 2012 period due to abnormally low market prices and the prevalence of citrus greening disease in Florida, Arizona and California.
Trees at Risk
As climate change progresses, the mix of tree species that provide critical ecosystem services will be altered—with unknown consequences. There could be increases in some services but also widely-expected losses in ecosystem benefits and human well-being.
An estimated 81% of tree species are projected to have at least 10% of their biomass exposed to climates outside their current climate envelope, impacting nearly 40% of total tree biomass in the contiguous U.S. An estimated 40% of species are projected to face increasing fire frequency. In both cases, individual species’ vulnerability depends more on where that species grows than on its genetic lineage. This analysis demonstrates a threatening interaction between these two disturbance agents: the species most valuable for carbon storage are also the most at risk from the increasing fire threat.
Known (established) pests threaten 16% of tree species and potentially affect up to 40% of total tree biomass. At greatest risk are the oak and pine genera (due to mountain pine beetle and oak wilt) plus most of the crop species. The authors cite chestnut blight and Dutch elm disease as examples of pests decimating once-dominant tree species — ones provided many services. In contrast to climate and fire risks, genetic relationships explain much of the risk of pest damage because most pests attack individual species, genera, or families. (There are exceptions – sudden oak death and the Fusarium fungi vectored by invasive shot hole borers attack species across a wide range of families.)
Cavender-Bareu and colleagues conclude that major losses to pest attack of dominant species and lineages that currently provide high-value ecosystem services would undermine forest capacity to provide important benefits—at least for decades. They note that pest threats appear to be increasing partially as a consequence of climate change, demonstrating that multiple threats can interact and exacerbate outcomes. They say policy interventions aimed at slowing pests’ spread will probably be necessary to preserve the ecosystem service of climate and air quality regulation.
The high diversity of tree taxa in U.S. forests might buffer losses of ecosystem service if the most valuable lineages (oaks and pines) are compromised. However, other species will be needed to fill the voids their loss creates. Ensuring this possibility will require intentional management of forests and trees in the face of myriad and simultaneous threats.
The authors also show how tree-provided ecosystem services are distributed across the U.S. depending largely on the locations of forests, tree plantations, and orchards. Climate and air quality regulation occurs everywhere forests grow. Timber production is concentrated in a subset of the regions that also produce high climate regulation and air pollution removal, including the Southeast, Pacific Northwest, Northeast, and Upper Midwest.
The most valuable tree crops are grown on the coasts, often where forests do not grow—e.g., California; and in several Southwestern, Southern, and Eastern states.
Cavender-Bareu and colleagues found that climate change threatens species in all parts of the continent. Wildfires are expected to increase especially in California and the Intermountain West, which they say coincides with high annual storage of carbon. (This finding is opposite from those of Quirion et al. (2021) which pointed to the slow growth of pines in this region as reducing carbon storage potential.)
Cavender-Bareu and colleagues found that pest threats are highest in the Southwest and Southeast. These pests (native and non-native) are predicted to disproportionally affect species that generate high annual net values for climate regulation, air quality regulation, and wood products – e.g., pines and oaks. As noted above, these values are driven by their abundance. They note that mountain pine beetle and oak wilt have not yet reached areas with high wood product production in Northeast and Southeast.
Other studies (see Aukema et al. 2010) and here & here show that the greatest threats from non-native pests are to the Northeast/Midwest, and the Pacific coast – and Hawai`i & here.
Cavender-Bareu and colleagues’ analysis advances our understanding of the threat several change drivers pose to benefits Americans receive from our forests. However, we must remember that some of the most important ecosystem services were not included because of insufficient data. Missing services:
1) most urban ecosystems. Inclusion of urban trees in the analysis would significantly increase the value of avoided health damage due to tree-based removal of air pollution. Urban trees also help regulate climate change (Nowak et al. estimate 643 M Mg of carbon are stored in urban areas, at a value of $2.31 billion annually).
2) many other regulating ecosystem services, such as erosion control, flood regulation, storm surge regulation, urban heat island regulation, energy savings due to shade, and species habitat / biodiversity.
3) recreation, ornamental, spiritual, and aesthetic values.
A complete accounting would also require estimates of the damage trees cause and the cost of their maintenance. For example, the full cost of irrigating almond trees; allergies and irritations due to tree pollen and sap; injuries to people and property caused by falling trees and limbs; trees’ role in spreading fires; trees’ contribution to volatile organic compounds (a pollutant).
The estimated annual values of the climate and air quality regulation have large uncertainty. These arise from uncertainty re: the social cost of carbon, the value of a statistical life, and uncertainty in the air pollution dose–mortality response function. The estimated annual values of the provisioning services are more precise because they are calculated from the market price for the per unit value of tree crops, wood products, and Christmas trees, as well as reliable data on production volume.
SOURCES
Aukema, J.E., D.G. McCullough, B. Von Holle, A.M. Liebhold, K. Britton, & S.J. Frankel. 2010. Historical Accumulation of Nonindigenous Forest Pests in the Continental United States. Bioscience. December 2010 / Vol. 60 No. 11
Cavender-Bareu, J.M., E. Nelson, J.E. Meireles, J.R. Lasky, D.A. Miteva, D.J.Nowak, W.D. Pearse, M.R. Helmus, A.E. Zanne, W.F. Fagan, C. Mihiar, N.Z. Muller, N.J.B. Kraft, S. Polasky. 2022. The hidden value of trees — Quantifying the ecosystem services of tree lineages and their major threats across the contiguous. PLOS Sustainability and Transformation April 5, 2022.
Quirion BR, Domke GM, Walters BF, Lovett GM, Fargione JE, Greenwood L, Serbesoff-King K, Randall JM & Fei S (2021) Insect and Disease Disturbances Correlate With Reduced Carbon Sequestration in Forests of the Contiguous United States. Front. For. Glob. Change 4:716582. Volume 4 Article 716582 doi: 10.3389/ffgc.2021.716582